4
represent the main linkages to be empirically tested using campaign expenditure data. The
dotted lines illustrate potential relationships between expenditures, candidate and district-
specific characteristics, which will be controlled for. In the next section, I detail the
linkages illustrated in Figure 1 beginning with a discussion of Japan’s new formal rules
that place primary importance upon the SMD tier for candidates in large parties like the
LDP and DPJ.
Figure 1. The Linkages between Expenditures and Vote Shares
2. Winning Votes and Seats in the New System
In Japan’s new mixed-member system, politicians may win a seat to the Lower
House through three main avenues.
3
First, candidates can win the single-member district
outright by capturing the most votes. Second, the formal rules of the mixed system allow
candidates to compete simultaneously in the SMD and PR tiers. Therefore, some
politicians may lose the SMD race yet be “resurrected” because of a high ranking on one
3
Japanese voters are given two ballots, one to vote for a specific candidate in one of the 300 single-member
districts and another to vote for a party in one of 11 regional PR blocks.
Own
expenditures
Rival
expenditures
Own
vote share
District &
candidate
characteristics
Convention