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Association: Name: The Midwest Political Science Association URL: http://www.indiana.edu/~mpsa/
Citation: URL: http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p82572_index.html Direct Link: HTML Code:

Craemer, Thomas. "When Complexity Becomes an Issue: A Null Model for the Evolution of Public Opinion and Political Culture" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the The Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, Illinois, Apr 15, 2004 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p82572_index.html>

Craemer, T. C. , 2004-04-15 "When Complexity Becomes an Issue: A Null Model for the Evolution of Public Opinion and Political Culture" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the The Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, Illinois Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p82572_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Review Method: Peer Reviewed Abstract: This study employs a simple null model for the evolution of public opinion and political culture. The model represents a political application and extension of Motoo Kimura’s (1983) neutral theory of evolution. It simulates the emergence of consensus and dissent, political mood swings, and evolutionary trends from simple to complex political structures. The model makes a minimum of assumptions and investigates diffusion and growth patterns that would be expected if pure chance were responsible for interpersonal persuasion. Since the model is based on pure chance, it could be applied as a null-model to test empirical theories that make more restrictive assumptions. The model is general enough to apply to a variety of phenomena that are relevant to political science. In this study it is applied mainly to the diffusion of political ideas, but it can also be applied as a null model for diffusion of other aspects of political culture from the emergence of values, to the emergence of states, or the growth of bureaucratic organizations. The simulations show that if a finite number of opinions compete against one another randomly only one single opinion will ultimately survive (emergence of consensus). This is true even if these opinions have no distinguishing qualitative characteristics or selective advantages. Fragmentation of societies into local neighborhoods can slow down the process of consensus formation, but it cannot bring it to a halt. Argument quality accelerates the process of consensus formation as does elite influence. If elite members are more likely than members of the general public to persuade others, the process of consensus formation is accelerated, but the content of the ultimate consensus is not dictated by the elites. Dissent emerges when new ideas are introduced by chance and eventually any majority view will be replaced by a new majority view. If these simulated political ideas can be placed on a bipolar continuum (e.g., from left to right, or liberal to conservative), public opinion oscillates perpetually between the two poles in political ‘mood swings’ or ‘fashion waves’. Finally, even if complex ideas are cognitively more taxing than simple ones, random persuasion will create ever more complex ideas. If these ideas concern the structure of bureaucratic or political institutions, these institutions will grow ever more complex, even if organizational complexity is fiscally costly to sustain. The functional form of the increase in complexity is nonlinear and exhibits characteristics that lend themselves to the development of statistical estimators for complexity data of any kind.

Public Estimates of Public Opinion: Accuracy and False Consensus as a Function of Self-Placement and Issue Type

Beyond Regime Theory: Political Culture and Public Opinion in Urban Politics