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Earnings Inequality, Unemployment, and the Electoral Fortunes of Conservative Governments
Unformatted Document Text:  28 Table 2: Difference Regressions on Government Ideology Trends in 14 Developed Countries (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) ∆ Ln(Inequality) 120.642** 128.598** 109.548*** 110.780** 109.032*** 111.194** 91.411 117.944** (40.215) (53.980) (35.360) (47.456) (34.831) (47.882) (53.972) (44.729) ∆ Unemployment 1.827*** 2.021*** 2.257*** 2.500*** 2.264*** 2.488*** 2.348*** 2.157*** (0.254) (0.312) (0.432) (0.536) (0.429) (0.547) (0.542) (0.474) ∆ GDP/Capita -2.070* -2.597* -1.551 -2.035 -1.525 -2.094 -3.180 -4.636* (1.151) (1.359) (1.047) (1.353) (1.045) (1.353) (2.069) (2.580) ∆ Pop >=65 5.238 5.515 5.226 5.587 5.070 6.003 10.834 9.853 (4.145) (4.021) (4.210) (4.227) (4.577) (4.278) (7.152) (7.537) ∆ Trade (% GDP) -0.477 -0.608* -0.480 -0.608* -0.903* -0.884 (0.315) (0.330) (0.317) (0.337) (0.506) (0.577) ∆ Turnout -7.844 22.125 16.495 18.008 (32.833) (40.891) (56.755) (85.805) ∆ Union Density -0.503 -0.530 (0.808) (1.019) Constant 1.558 -3.317 1.668 -2.073 1.599 -2.022 1.518 -0.935 (2.074) (5.899) (2.158) (5.956) (2.033) (5.939) (4.079) (7.772) Time Dummies No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes Observations 202 202 202 202 202 202 124 124 R-squared 0.19 0.23 0.21 0.26 0.21 0.26 0.26 0.29 Table of difference regressions showing effect of changes in independent variables between year t and t-3 on 3 year changes in government ideology. Sample includes observations from 14 developed countries for year t between 1970 and 2000. Not all countries contain observations in all years. Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on country. * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%;*** significant at 1%

Authors: MacRae, Duncan.
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28
Table 2: Difference Regressions on Government Ideology Trends in 14 Developed Countries
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
Ln(Inequality)
120.642**
128.598**
109.548***
110.780**
109.032***
111.194**
91.411
117.944**
(40.215)
(53.980)
(35.360)
(47.456)
(34.831)
(47.882)
(53.972)
(44.729)
Unemployment
1.827***
2.021***
2.257***
2.500***
2.264***
2.488***
2.348***
2.157***
(0.254)
(0.312)
(0.432)
(0.536)
(0.429)
(0.547)
(0.542)
(0.474)
∆ GDP/Capita
-2.070*
-2.597*
-1.551
-2.035
-1.525
-2.094
-3.180
-4.636*
(1.151)
(1.359)
(1.047)
(1.353)
(1.045)
(1.353)
(2.069)
(2.580)
∆ Pop >=65
5.238
5.515
5.226
5.587
5.070
6.003
10.834
9.853
(4.145)
(4.021)
(4.210)
(4.227)
(4.577)
(4.278)
(7.152)
(7.537)
∆ Trade (% GDP)
-0.477
-0.608*
-0.480
-0.608*
-0.903*
-0.884
(0.315)
(0.330)
(0.317)
(0.337)
(0.506)
(0.577)
Turnout
-7.844
22.125
16.495
18.008
(32.833)
(40.891)
(56.755)
(85.805)
Union
Density
-0.503
-0.530
(0.808)
(1.019)
Constant
1.558
-3.317
1.668
-2.073
1.599
-2.022
1.518
-0.935
(2.074)
(5.899)
(2.158)
(5.956)
(2.033)
(5.939)
(4.079)
(7.772)
Time
Dummies
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Observations
202
202
202
202
202
202
124
124
R-squared
0.19
0.23
0.21
0.26
0.21
0.26
0.26
0.29
Table of difference regressions showing effect of changes in independent variables between year t and t-3 on 3 year changes in government
ideology. Sample includes observations from 14 developed countries for year t between 1970 and 2000. Not all countries contain
observations in all years. Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on country. * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%;***
significant at 1%


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