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LATIN RHYTHMS: COUP CYCLES IN THEAMERICAS
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For the region as a whole, attempted coups are numerous, totaling 152 from 1950 to
2000. Taken together with coups proper, it is clear that Latin America has an earned
reputation for political instability.
Figure 6 plots the annual number of attempted coups in the region. The data
suggest that there are attempted coups in all but a few years, and sometimes the number
is large, e.g., 12 in 1981 or 10 in 1983.
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Visual inspection of the distribution of
attempted coups over time reveals much. In contrast to coups, attempted coups appear
generally on the rise. For instance, there are far fewer attempts the first half of the series
(1950-1974), compared to the second half (1975-2000). Indeed, there were close to two
times as many attempts in the second half (96/56 = 1.71). There is some tapering off at
the end, e.g., in the last five years there were only five attempted coups. However, that is
perfectly balanced by the beginning five years, where there were also only five. The
suggestion, of course, is that there may be cycles within trends, possibilities we explore
below. Generally speaking, the notion that coup activity (understood as coups or
attempted coups), is dead, or even dying, appears wrong-headed. Instead, in the
Americas it persists with some vigor.
(Figure
6
about
here)
ATTEMPTED COUP TRENDS AND CYCLES: SIMPLE HYPOTHESES
What particular Latin beat do attempted coups follow? Because they would
appear similar to coups, at least in their goals, one might suppose that the two behaviors
13
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| | Authors: Moreno, Erika., Lewis-Beck, Michael. and Amoureux, Jacque. |
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For the region as a whole, attempted coups are numerous, totaling 152 from 1950 to
2000. Taken together with coups proper, it is clear that Latin America has an earned
reputation for political instability.
Figure 6 plots the annual number of attempted coups in the region. The data
suggest that there are attempted coups in all but a few years, and sometimes the number
attempted coups over time reveals much. In contrast to coups, attempted coups appear
generally on the rise. For instance, there are far fewer attempts the first half of the series
(1950-1974), compared to the second half (1975-2000). Indeed, there were close to two
times as many attempts in the second half (96/56 = 1.71). There is some tapering off at
the end, e.g., in the last five years there were only five attempted coups. However, that is
perfectly balanced by the beginning five years, where there were also only five. The
suggestion, of course, is that there may be cycles within trends, possibilities we explore
below. Generally speaking, the notion that coup activity (understood as coups or
attempted coups), is dead, or even dying, appears wrong-headed. Instead, in the
Americas it persists with some vigor.
(Figure
6
about
here)
ATTEMPTED COUP TRENDS AND CYCLES: SIMPLE HYPOTHESES
What particular Latin beat do attempted coups follow? Because they would
appear similar to coups, at least in their goals, one might suppose that the two behaviors
13
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