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A FISTFUL OF EUROS: CAMPAIGN SPENDING EFFECTS UNDER THE SINGLE-TRANSFERABLE VOTE ELECTORAL SYSTEM

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Abstract:

The effects of campaign spending on electoral outcomes remains relatively untested in comparative, multiparty contexts. Spending effects under the Single-Transferable Vote (STV) electoral system have received almost no attention from political scientists but that system's facilitation of candidate centered voting with the otherwise conventional partisan context common in parliamentary democracies makes it especially interesting. Our study develops a model of competition and electoral success under STV and applies it to the Irish national election of May 2002. Using spending and electoral data gathered on 464 candidates from 42 constituencies to elect Ireland's 166-member legislature, we parameterize and then statistically estimate the effects of candidate spending in both absolute and relative terms. Testing both inter- and intra-party spending effect we find a positive and statistically significant relationship between spending and electoral success. Increased spending on behalf of a candidate brings more votes for that candidate, in competition against not only all candidates but also in competition with own-party running mates. Increased spending also directly increases a candidate’s chance of winning a seat.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

spend (255), candid (191), parti (128), elect (100), vote (87), incumb (80), campaign (66), effect (59), seat (57), 5 (54), marsh (45), euro (43), 3 (43), 4 (42), benoit (41), polit (40), district (39), challeng (39), elector (37), fist (36), total (35),

Author's Keywords:

campaign spending, STV, Ireland
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Association:
Name: The Midwest Political Science Association
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http://www.indiana.edu/~mpsa/


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MLA Citation:

Benoit, Kenneth. and Marsh, Michael. "A FISTFUL OF EUROS: CAMPAIGN SPENDING EFFECTS UNDER THE SINGLE-TRANSFERABLE VOTE ELECTORAL SYSTEM" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the The Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, Illinois, Apr 15, 2004 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p84164_index.html>

APA Citation:

Benoit, K. R. and Marsh, M. , 2004-04-15 "A FISTFUL OF EUROS: CAMPAIGN SPENDING EFFECTS UNDER THE SINGLE-TRANSFERABLE VOTE ELECTORAL SYSTEM" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the The Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, Illinois Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p84164_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: The effects of campaign spending on electoral outcomes remains relatively untested in comparative, multiparty contexts. Spending effects under the Single-Transferable Vote (STV) electoral system have received almost no attention from political scientists but that system's facilitation of candidate centered voting with the otherwise conventional partisan context common in parliamentary democracies makes it especially interesting. Our study develops a model of competition and electoral success under STV and applies it to the Irish national election of May 2002. Using spending and electoral data gathered on 464 candidates from 42 constituencies to elect Ireland's 166-member legislature, we parameterize and then statistically estimate the effects of candidate spending in both absolute and relative terms. Testing both inter- and intra-party spending effect we find a positive and statistically significant relationship between spending and electoral success. Increased spending on behalf of a candidate brings more votes for that candidate, in competition against not only all candidates but also in competition with own-party running mates. Increased spending also directly increases a candidate’s chance of winning a seat.

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Associated Document Available The Midwest Political Science Association
Associated Document Available Political Research Online

Document Type: .pdf
Page count: 33
Word count: 10485
Text sample:
Fistful of Euros – Benoit and Marsh / 1 A FISTFUL OF EUROS: CAMPAIGN SPENDING EFFECTS UNDER THE SINGLE-TRANSFERABLE VOTE ELECTORAL SYSTEM* Kenneth Benoit Michael Marsh Trinity College University of Dublin Trinity College University of Dublin kbenoit@tcd.ie mmarsh@tcd.ie April 15 2004 Abstract The effects of campaign spending on electoral outcomes remains relatively untested in comparative multiparty contexts. Spending effects under the Single-Transferable Vote (STV) electoral system have received almost no attention from political scientists but that system's facilitation of
Euros – Benoit and Marsh / 33 1 .8 Probability of Winning a Seat .6 Incumbents .4 Challengers .2 0 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 Total Spending Figure 3. Effect of spending on probability of winning a seat comparing Challengers and Incumbents. Dashed lines indicates two standard errors. Predicted probabilities and standard errors estimated using CLARIFY based on regressions in Table x (General logit table).


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