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Exchange Rate Regimes and Independent Central Banks: A Correlated Choice of Imperfectly Credible Institutions

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Abstract:

Why do we see in practice independent central banks coexisting with fixed exchange rates? Theoretical work on monetary policy has generally treated the two institutions as separate,
substitutable solutions to time inconsistent inflation preferences. As such, the literature cannot explain why the alternative solutions coexist and is short of describing the
interaction between the two. In this paper I develop a model that allows the government to act simultaneously in two areas: the
exchange rate regime and the independence of the central bank. I find that imperfectly credible fixed rates and central bank explain why policy makers choose a mix of institutions that fight
inflation. I also show that in bad times (hyperinflation, transition from authoritarian rule) it is more likely to have a right wing executive choosing the institution that guarantees a
zero inflation rate even if the zero inflation rule is not totally believed by the public. Finally, when fixed rates are not effective in cutting inflation we see the right, the party with strong inflation credentials, becoming more likely to combine
fixed rates with another inflation fighting mechanism .
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Author's Keywords:

Fixed Rates, Central Banks, Institutional substitution, Imperfect Institutions
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Association:
Name: The Midwest Political Science Association
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http://www.indiana.edu/~mpsa/


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MLA Citation:

Bodea, Cristina. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Independent Central Banks: A Correlated Choice of Imperfectly Credible Institutions" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the The Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, Illinois, Apr 15, 2004 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p84377_index.html>

APA Citation:

Bodea, C. , 2004-04-15 "Exchange Rate Regimes and Independent Central Banks: A Correlated Choice of Imperfectly Credible Institutions" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the The Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, Illinois Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p84377_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Why do we see in practice independent central banks coexisting with fixed exchange rates? Theoretical work on monetary policy has generally treated the two institutions as separate,
substitutable solutions to time inconsistent inflation preferences. As such, the literature cannot explain why the alternative solutions coexist and is short of describing the
interaction between the two. In this paper I develop a model that allows the government to act simultaneously in two areas: the
exchange rate regime and the independence of the central bank. I find that imperfectly credible fixed rates and central bank explain why policy makers choose a mix of institutions that fight
inflation. I also show that in bad times (hyperinflation, transition from authoritarian rule) it is more likely to have a right wing executive choosing the institution that guarantees a
zero inflation rate even if the zero inflation rule is not totally believed by the public. Finally, when fixed rates are not effective in cutting inflation we see the right, the party with strong inflation credentials, becoming more likely to combine
fixed rates with another inflation fighting mechanism .

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Abstract Only All Academic Inc.
Associated Document Available The Midwest Political Science Association
Associated Document Available Political Research Online

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