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Divided Government, Parties, and U.S. Trade Policy: How Domestic Institutions and Partisan Control Affect Trade Policy, 1947-2002

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Abstract:

Using data from 1949-1990 Lohmann and O’Halloran (1994) find that the existence of divided government is positively associated with the level of protectionism in the United States. Clark (1998) refutes their results with the addition of two years of data; he finds that divided government is negatively associated with protectionism. By increasing the sample size with the addition of the years 1991-2002, this paper re-analyzes the Lohmann and O’Halloran model. I generate additional hypotheses by building partisan preferences on trade into their theoretical framework. I find little support for the Lohmann and O’Halloran model. First, divided government is negatively associated with protectionism, as is a Republican Congress. However, Republican presidents are associated with higher tariff levels. There is weak evidence that partisan preferences toward trade matter: using an interactive variable to measure partisan control of the presidency and Congress, divided government only makes a difference when the president is a Democrat and Congress is Republican.

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govern (129), divid (114), presid (95), republican (79), congress (73), hous (66), partisan (61), o (60), trade (60), halloran (60), democrat (59), lohmann (58), senat (54), control (52), parti (50), clark (46), tariff (43), unifi (42), variabl (37), find (34), level (34),
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Name: The Midwest Political Science Association
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http://www.indiana.edu/~mpsa/


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MLA Citation:

Simonelli, Nicole. "Divided Government, Parties, and U.S. Trade Policy: How Domestic Institutions and Partisan Control Affect Trade Policy, 1947-2002" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the The Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, Illinois, Apr 15, 2004 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p84443_index.html>

APA Citation:

Simonelli, N. M. , 2004-04-15 "Divided Government, Parties, and U.S. Trade Policy: How Domestic Institutions and Partisan Control Affect Trade Policy, 1947-2002" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the The Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, Illinois Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p84443_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Using data from 1949-1990 Lohmann and O’Halloran (1994) find that the existence of divided government is positively associated with the level of protectionism in the United States. Clark (1998) refutes their results with the addition of two years of data; he finds that divided government is negatively associated with protectionism. By increasing the sample size with the addition of the years 1991-2002, this paper re-analyzes the Lohmann and O’Halloran model. I generate additional hypotheses by building partisan preferences on trade into their theoretical framework. I find little support for the Lohmann and O’Halloran model. First, divided government is negatively associated with protectionism, as is a Republican Congress. However, Republican presidents are associated with higher tariff levels. There is weak evidence that partisan preferences toward trade matter: using an interactive variable to measure partisan control of the presidency and Congress, divided government only makes a difference when the president is a Democrat and Congress is Republican.

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Associated Document Available The Midwest Political Science Association
Associated Document Available Political Research Online

Document Type: .PDF
Page count: 32
Word count: 7353
Text sample:
Divided Government Parties and U.S. Trade Policy: How Domestic Institutions and Partisan Control Affect Trade Policy 1947-2002 Nicole Simonelli New York University April 15 2004 Prepared for the Midwest Political Science Association 62nd Annual National Conference April 15-18 2004 Chicago Illinois Abstract: Using data from 1949-1990 Lohmann and O’Halloran (1994) find that the existence of divided government is positively associated with the level of protectionism in the United States. Clark (1998) refutes their results with the addition of two
+ b6 + b9 unified to positive -0.00735 0.00167*** divided government Republican Congress; unified to b4 + b7 + b8 + divided negative 0 0.002872 0.00370 b10 government; Partisan Hypothesis 3 Democratic Congress; b4 unified to positive -0.00016 0.00113 divided government b4 + b5 + b6 Partisan + b7 + b8+ b9 Hypothesis 1 negative -0.00483 0.00378 + b10 ***p .01 32


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