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Clarify program.
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This program converts the logit statistics into interpretable probabilities.
Using clarify, I estimated the probabilities in Table 5.
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Table 5 about here
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Discussion
There are three major claims that I wanted to test in this paper. The first main claim
is that the internal structure of self-determination group – in terms of the number of factions
they have – is a major determinant of whether the group will get autonomy from the state.
The second main claim is that the internal structure of the state – in terms of the number of
veto players that have to approve any change from status quo – is a major determinant in
whether the state will give autonomy. Finally, I argued that the effect of having many veto
players will be mitigated by a large amount of fungible resources.
All three of my primary claims are supported to some extent by my empirical
analysis. I will address each of my three hypotheses in turn. First, I argued that the
relationship between the number of factions and the likelihood of autonomy is negative and
possibly non-linear. This is partially supported by the data. In fact, there appears to be a
clear negative linear relationship between the number of factions in a self-determination
group and the likelihood that they will get autonomy. The results presented above suggest
that a change from one to three factions leads to a .29 decrease in the probability of the group
getting autonomy. This is consistent with my assertion that states will offer autonomy less
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Clarify was developed by King, Tomz, and Wittenberg.
Convention