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The 2004 Pre-Election and Exit Polls: A Total Survey Error Analysis |
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Abstract:
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The accuracy of the 2004 pre-election and exit polls are examined from a total survey error perspective. There was considerable speculation before the election that Republicans were being oversampled, partly because of the exclusion of people who only have cell phones from sampling frames. Weighting by partisanship seems to have accidentally overcompensated for that problem. By contrast, Republican voters were less likely to be interviewed in exit polls, partly because of interviewer-related effects. All in all, the problems with the exit polls were more serious than those for the pre-election polls in 2004. |
Most Common Document Word Stems:
poll (122), error (80), elect (77), interview (70), vote (60), exit (57), survey (53), 2004 (47), sampl (42), pre (37), pre-elect (34), precinct (30), effect (29), problem (24), bush (23), 1 (23), differ (23), sourc (23), voter (22), one (22), democrat (21), |
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Association:
Name: The Midwest Political Science Association
URL: http://www.indiana.edu/~mpsa/
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Weisberg, Herb. "The 2004 Pre-Election and Exit Polls: A Total Survey Error Analysis" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the The Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, Illinois, Apr 07, 2005 <Not Available>. 2009-05-25 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p85357_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Weisberg, H. , 2005-04-07 "The 2004 Pre-Election and Exit Polls: A Total Survey Error Analysis" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the The Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, Illinois Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-25 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p85357_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: The accuracy of the 2004 pre-election and exit polls are examined from a total survey error perspective. There was considerable speculation before the election that Republicans were being oversampled, partly because of the exclusion of people who only have cell phones from sampling frames. Weighting by partisanship seems to have accidentally overcompensated for that problem. By contrast, Republican voters were less likely to be interviewed in exit polls, partly because of interviewer-related effects. All in all, the problems with the exit polls were more serious than those for the pre-election polls in 2004. |
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.pdf |
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21 |
| Word count: |
5359 |
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| The 2004 Pre-Election and Exit Polls: A Total Survey Error Analysis Herbert F. Weisberg The Ohio State University "The pre-election polls for this election were off more than ever." "This year's pre-election polls were on target." "Our pre-election poll was the most accurate." These are the claims that we hear after each presidential election some people disparaging all the polls others defending them and some pollsters proclaiming theirs the victor. The problem is that pre-election polls are evaluated on |
| News Media and Democracy. New York: Chatham House. Merkle Daniel M. and Murray Edelman. 2002. "Nonresponse in Exit Polls " in Robert M. Groves et al. Survey Nonresponse. New York: Wiley. Weisberg Herbert F. 2005. The Total Survey Error Approach: A Guide to the New Science of Survey Research. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Zogby John. (2004). "2004: It Is Not an 11 Point Race". A press release from John Zogby's website. Can be accessed at http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=859 4 This |
Similar Titles:
Disconnected Modes: Mode Effects among Early Voter Phone and Election Day In-Person Exit Poll Surveys.
Too Many Bush Voters? False Vote Recall and the 2004 Exit Poll
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