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Did Gay Marriage Elect George W. Bush? |
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Abstract:
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We draw from agenda setting and voter mobilization theories to develop hypotheses about how the gay marriage issue may have affected voter choice in the 2004 presidential contest. We use national opinion data to test if gay marriage had greater salience for voters in states where gay marriage ban amendments were on the ballot, and test if the issue had a greater affect on candidate choice in these states. We then use state level opinion data to test how support for the gay marriage ban interacted with the mobilization effects of state anti-gay marriage campaigns to shape support for Bush in key states. We find that gay marriage amendments affected the issue agenda in 2004, and increased support for Bush. Gay marriage was more likely to be cited by residents of states with marriage amendments as an issue used to evaluate candidates, and residents of marriage ban states who were primed to be concerned about gay marriage were significantly more likely to vote Bush. We also find that the amendment may have mobilized turnout of voters opposed to gay marriage in Ohio, and that these voters were significantly more likely to vote for Bush. |
Most Common Document Word Stems:
marriag (182), gay (152), state (150), issu (119), bush (111), ballot (107), support (100), vote (94), measur (89), effect (87), ban (84), 000 (73), voter (73), 2004 (67), ohio (64), candid (54), presidenti (52), mobil (48), prime (48), survey (46), arkansa (43), |
Author's Keywords:
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Ballot measures, candidates, voting, elections,
priming, agenda, turnout, gay marriage |
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Association:
Name: Western Political Science Association URL: http://www.csus.edu/ORG/WPSA/
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Donovan, Todd., Tolbert, Caroline., Smith, Daniel. and Parry, Janine. "Did Gay Marriage Elect George W. Bush?" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Western Political Science Association, Marriott Hotel, Oakland, California, Mar 17, 2005 <Not Available>. 2009-05-25 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p87506_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Donovan, T. , Tolbert, C. , Smith, D. A. and Parry, J. , 2005-03-17 "Did Gay Marriage Elect George W. Bush?" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Western Political Science Association, Marriott Hotel, Oakland, California Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-25 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p87506_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Review Method: Peer Reviewed Abstract: We draw from agenda setting and voter mobilization theories to develop hypotheses about how the gay marriage issue may have affected voter choice in the 2004 presidential contest. We use national opinion data to test if gay marriage had greater salience for voters in states where gay marriage ban amendments were on the ballot, and test if the issue had a greater affect on candidate choice in these states. We then use state level opinion data to test how support for the gay marriage ban interacted with the mobilization effects of state anti-gay marriage campaigns to shape support for Bush in key states. We find that gay marriage amendments affected the issue agenda in 2004, and increased support for Bush. Gay marriage was more likely to be cited by residents of states with marriage amendments as an issue used to evaluate candidates, and residents of marriage ban states who were primed to be concerned about gay marriage were significantly more likely to vote Bush. We also find that the amendment may have mobilized turnout of voters opposed to gay marriage in Ohio, and that these voters were significantly more likely to vote for Bush. |
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| Document Type: |
.pdf |
| Page count: |
38 |
| Word count: |
10564 |
| Text sample: |
| Did Gay Marriage Elect George W. Bush? Todd Donovan Western Washington University Caroline Tolbert Kent State University Daniel A. Smith University of Florida Janine Parry University of Arkansas Abstract We draw from agenda setting and voter mobilization theories to develop hypotheses about how the gay marriage issue may have affected voter choice in the 2004 presidential contest. We use national opinion data to test if gay marriage had greater salience for voters in states where gay marriage ban amendments |
| OH: Ohio State University Press. Tolbert Caroline J. John Grummel and Daniel A. Smith. 2001. "The Effects of Ballot Initiatives on Voter Turnout in the American States." American Politics Research. 29: 625-648. Tolbert Caroline J. and Daniel A. Smith 2005. American Politics Research. Valentino Nicholas A. 1999. "Crime News and the Priming of Racial Attitudes during Evaluations of the President." Public Opinion Quarterly. 63: 293-320. West Darrell M. 1997. Air Wars: Television Advertising in Election Campaigns 1952- 1996. Washington |
Similar Titles:
Determinants of Electoral Support for Anti-Gay Marriage Constitutional Amendments: An Examination of 2008 Votes on Ballot Measures in the States
Do State-Level Ballot Measures Affect Presidential Elections? Gay Marriage and the 2004 Election
Determinants of Electoral Support for Anti-Gay Marriage Constitutional Amendments: An Examination of 2006 Votes on Ballot Measures in the States
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