are defense of the expanding Chinese sea lanes, and military hegemony over the sea lanes of
other nations such as Japan. Recently, China and Russia conducted a joint military exercise
named “Peace Mission 2005”. It involved about 10,000 troops, and was conducted from
August 18 25 in the Russian Far East, near the city of Vladivostok and the Chinese coastal
province of Shandong. It was clearly evident that this exercise scenario was based on a
military invasion of Taiwan, because China added the mission of “AntiSecessionism” to that
of “AntiTerrorist war” as the stated purpose of the exercise. Also, China initially proposed
the Zhejiang region near the Taiwan Straits as the exercise area at first. And it is also clear
that the other major purposes of this exercise were the denial of US military access to this
area of the Arc of Instability as well as to impede the USJapan military alliance. This is
because Russia used Tu95 Bear strategic bombers and Tu22M Backfire midrange bombers
to intercept “third nations' naval ships” in this exercise. Additionally, further export of
Russian weapons to China was also a possible purpose of this exercise. According to press
reports, agreement was reached on Russian export of Tu22M Backfire aircraft to China.
This aircraft will be a significant threat to USN and JMSDF ships operating in the vicinity
of Taiwan and the East China Sea.
Taiwan is of vital importance to Japan's national existence. If China were to gain
hegemony over Taiwan, Japan would have a major national crisis because Japanese SLOCs
for natural resources could then easily be controlled by China. Therefore, Chinese
establishment of their
“AntiSecession Law” and Chinese military pressure
on Taiwan are very serious matters for Japan.
However, it is estimated that China will not have
the capability for military invasion of Taiwan for the
foreseeable future.
China is currently developing four natural gas
fields nearby the borderline between Japan and
China economic zones in the East China Sea (China
does not recognize the borderline). In September
5
Japan’s Oil Route
Importance of TAIWAN
Taiwan
9 3 .9 %
4 .9 %
1 .2 %
East China Sea
Chinese Gas Fiel d
Senkaku Is.
Chinese AGI
East China
Sea issue between
Japan
and China
Convention