reasons are: improving economic situation due to Chinese and South Korean economic
assistance, disciplined and obedient military, some good results of minor economic reform,
and no clearly identified successor. Kim Jong Il makes the military his No.1 priority and has
succeeded in stabilizing and maintaining his leadership position through the military
particularly because he lacks charisma. He has decentralized the military leadership by
creating three principal governmental organizations and taking direct, personal control of
each. The issue of a successor is probably of some concern to him, and is worthy of further
comment.
From a long range view, it is conceivable that the current NK political system could be
threatened by the infusion of a market economy mindset due to the ongoing economic
reforms, an increasing gap between rich and poor, and the inflow of foreign information. NK
distributes its resources to first and primarily to their military. Their defense budget
accounts for about 25% of the GNP. The key features of their military are: arraying 2/3 of
the army near the DMZ; vast numbers of long range artillery pieces; special operation forces
numbering about 120,000; development and deployment of ballistic missiles; development
and possession of WMD, mainly nuclear weapons; and enhanced survivability through
extensive underground facilities. In this context, their possession of WMD and ballistic
missiles causes a severe impact on East Asian security.
As for nuclear weapons development, the “4
th
Six Nation Talks (Second round)” was held
in September 2005 and a mutual agreement was adopted, with the US, China and NK each
having a hidden agenda. The major portion of this agreement consists of two parts. One is
that “NK will abandon all nuclear weapons development and return to the Nuclear Non
Proliferation Treaty and the International Atomic Energy Agency's inspection”. The other is
that the “US will not possess nuclear weapons on the Korean peninsula and does not intend
to attack and invade NK”. However, many differences in interpretation have ensued,
causing the inevitable postponement of real solutions, and are the harbinger of even more
difficulties in further discussions. During the course of these talks, matters causing great
anxiety arose, including South Korea's inclination towards NK, and big compromises to NK
by the US. All this has given NK an advantageous position, enabling it to play for time
while continuing its nuclear weapons development program.
Many believe that the US will refrain from using military force against NK because the
country possesses nuclear weapons. There is also a belief that the South Korean military no
longer has any intention to fight against NK. In the Six Nation Talks, no discussion about
NK’s development of ballistic missiles took place. For Japan ( and the US in the future),
NK’s combination of ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads is a grave threat.
7
Convention