(Page 5 of 46) - Can China Become a Maritime Power? authored by Goldstein, Lyle. and Erickson, Andrew.

DRAFT – NOT FOR CITATION

Among the many military campaigns analyzed by PRC strategists, the Persian

Gulf War (1990-91) was singularly important, however, for shocking the PLA out of a
Deng Xiaoping-era malaise characterized by declining defense budgets, low technology,
and poor readiness. According to David Shambaugh: “In the PLA’s seventy-year history,
only the Korean War produced such a thoroughgoing reassessment.”

Describing the

impact as a “jarring effect on the PLA,” Shambaugh explains: “[PLA] planners had
never imagined the application of the numerous new high technologies developed by the
United States … Nearly every aspect of the campaign reminded the PLA high command
of its deficiencies.”

There is a noteworthy caveat that has been overlooked in such analyses and has

major implications for Chinese naval development. Not surprisingly, Chinese analysts
scrutinized all naval aspects of the 1990-91 conflict carefully.

PRC writings concerning

MIW almost universally cite the damaging of two U.S. Navy warships during the Persian
Gulf War.

One PRC specialist Fu Jinzhu, noteworthy for his prolific writings (in Chinese) on

all aspects of MIW and MCM, published a detailed and comprehensive analysis of mine
warfare in the Persian Gulf War in the March 1992 issue of Xiandai Jianchuan [Modern
Ships].

This analysis concludes that MIW played an unexpectedly large role,

demonstrating conclusively that mines are one of the most effective methods for weak
countries to defend against strong countries, though Fu also is careful to state that strong
countries can also effectively employ mines.

Fu contends that the successful MIW

attacks against USS Tripoli and USS Princeton illustrate the “relatively feeble” character
of U.S. MCM. He argues that this is particularly true given the apparent weaknesses of
Iraqi MIW, which Fu lists as: inadequate planning and preparation, inability to lay a

David Shambaugh, Modernizing China’s Military: Progress, Problems, and Prospects (Berkeley, CA:

University of California Press, 2002), p. 74.

David Shambaugh, Modernizing China’s Military: Progress, Problems, and Prospects (Berkeley, CA:

University of California Press, 2002), p. 69. See also Paul H.B. Godwin, “Change and Continuity in
Chinese Military Doctrine,” in Mark A. Ryan, David M. Finkelstein, and Michael A. McDevitt (eds.),
Chinese Warfighting: The PLA Experience Since 1949 (London: M.E. Sharpe, 2003), p. 46.

See, for example, 茹呈

瑶 and 夏山 [Ru Chenyao and Xia Yin Shan], “海

中的水雷和反水雷”

湾争

[Mine and Counter-Mine in the Gulf War], 代船 [Modern Ships] No. 64 (April 1991), pp. 51-58; and
海

涛 [Chen Shuhai and Chen Yingtao], “水雷：多部海上的唯一障碍”

国

[Sea Mines: the

Coalition Forces’ Single Naval Obstacle], 船知 [Naval & Merchant Ships] No. 141, June 1991, pp. 28-
29.

This holds true for articles of scientific nature, for example, 田路, 伏虎, 城 [Tian Lu, Chen Fuhu and

Zhong Tiecheng], “反水雷技的展

和

系

想”

概况

声构

[A Survey of MCM Technology and Sonar

Development]

子工程

声学与

[Acoustical & Electrical Engineering] April 2004, p. 17; and 忠

刘

[Liu

Zhong], “ 路雷及其被定位原理”

网

[Mine Array Networks and Passive Location Principles], 海工程

大

学学 [Journal of the Naval Academy of Engineering] Vol. 13, No. 6, December 2001, p. 20; as well as

for naval reference materials, such as 建 [Lu Jianxun] (ed.), 海武器

装 [Naval Weaponry and

Equipment] (Beijing: Atomic Energy Press, 2003), p. 108; and the conventional military press, see for
example, no author, “ 付航母斗群的九招 ”

个

[Nine Tactics for Coping with Aircraft Carrier Battle

Groups], 代海

当

[Modern Navy], Vol. 3, No. 90 (March 2001), p. 33.

傅金祝 [Fu Jinzhu], “海

中的水雷 ”

湾争

[Mine Warfare in the Gulf War], 代船 [Modern Ships]

No. 75, March 1992, pp. 30-33.

Ibid, p. 32-33. The statement as written is somewhat ambiguous. This could be interpreted as Fu’s

suggestion that China, as a “strong country,” should also engage in mine warfare. Another possible
interpretation is that Fu is emphasizing that strong states, the U.S. for example, have employed mine
warfare extensively and could do so against China in the future.