neoconservatives (neocons). Many neocons believe that because the rise of a new
challenger often ends in violent clashes with status-quo powers, China’s ascent
inevitably presents immense danger for U.S. security and world stability (Wolfowitz
1997: 6-7; Friedberg 2000: 200-3; Kaplan 2005: 50). For example, in an article entitled
‘The illusion of “managing” China’, neoconservative commentator Robert Kagan
(2005: B07) argues that the history of established powers’ attempts to ‘manage’ rising
powers has been littered with failures and mistakes, and that the only way to ensure
peace and stability is to treat China ‘as at least a prospective enemy, and not just 20
years from now, but now’. Indeed, believing that time is on China’s side, the neocons
see the next decade or so as a ‘window of opportunity’ for the U.S. to cement its world
supremacy, before it becomes too late: ‘If we falter in the use of our economic and
political influence now to effect positive change in China, we will have squandered an
historic opportunity’ (USCC 2004: 2, emphasis added; see also Weinstein 2005;
Almond 2004).
The focus of this paper is on this neoconservative strategy on China. The paper consists
of three sections. It begins with a brief discussion of what neoconservatism is, and what
its grand strategy looks like. Then it examines both how the neocons perceive China and
whether they remain relevant to U.S. China policy in a post-Iraq period. Finally, the
paper seeks to illustrate the implications of the neoconservative strategy for U.S.-China
relations. In doing so, it also aims to fill a gap in the literature on neoconservatives and
China, a connection which, despite its serious implications, has not received adequate
attention from international scholars. As will be illustrated below, for all their obsession
with ‘regime change’ in the Middle East and their apparent decline in popularity, the
neocons have had a long-standing interest in China, and their influence on U.S. foreign
policy thinking and making is likely to continue. Therefore, it is important to draw
attention to the question of how the neocons’ grand strategy relates to China, an
understanding of which is essential to avoiding future U.S.-China confrontation.
Neoconservatism and Its (American) Grand Strategy
As a cluster of ideas, neoconservatism is at once an ideology and a political movement,
and has both foreign policy and domestic relevance. For the purpose of this paper, it is
understood here primarily as a particular way of theorising world politics and America’s
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