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A Deterrence Model of Candidate Positioning and Electoral Competition: An Alternative to the Spatial Voting Model

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Abstract:

This paper offers a new conceptual framework for thinking about competitive elections and candidate positioning. The paper presents and empirically tests a deterrence-based game-theoretic model built on the argument that incumbents do not moderate to defeat opponents-- they moderate to dissuade opponents from challenging them. When they face opponents, it is because they did not moderate. The deterrence model is based on more empirically justifiable assumptions than the spatial voting model, and in important ways, its predictions are more accurate than those of the spatial voting model. The model also has important implications for political reforms aimed at increasing competition in congressional elections. Specifically, promoting competitive elections by promoting challenger entry is likely to have perverse consequences by increasing ideological polarization in Congress

Most Common Document Word Stems:

model (255), challeng (249), incumb (224), vote (186), posit (160), elect (157), spatial (155), candid (125), predict (112), deterr (88), run (88), polici (83), assumpt (81), competit (80), 1 (73), point (69), would (65), moder (64), voter (61), ideolog (61), valenc (55),

Author's Keywords:

elections, competition, spatial voting, candidate positioning, Congress, challengers
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Name: The Midwest Political Science Association
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http://www.indiana.edu/~mpsa/


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MLA Citation:

Buchler, Justin. "A Deterrence Model of Candidate Positioning and Electoral Competition: An Alternative to the Spatial Voting Model" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the The Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, Illinois, Apr 20, 2006 <Not Available>. 2009-05-25 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p138013_index.html>

APA Citation:

Buchler, J. M. , 2006-04-20 "A Deterrence Model of Candidate Positioning and Electoral Competition: An Alternative to the Spatial Voting Model" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the The Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, Illinois Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2009-05-25 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p138013_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: This paper offers a new conceptual framework for thinking about competitive elections and candidate positioning. The paper presents and empirically tests a deterrence-based game-theoretic model built on the argument that incumbents do not moderate to defeat opponents-- they moderate to dissuade opponents from challenging them. When they face opponents, it is because they did not moderate. The deterrence model is based on more empirically justifiable assumptions than the spatial voting model, and in important ways, its predictions are more accurate than those of the spatial voting model. The model also has important implications for political reforms aimed at increasing competition in congressional elections. Specifically, promoting competitive elections by promoting challenger entry is likely to have perverse consequences by increasing ideological polarization in Congress

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Associated Document Available The Midwest Political Science Association
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Associated Document Available Political Research Online

Document Type: application/pdf
Page count: 39
Word count: 14973
Text sample:
A Deterrence Model of Candidate Positioning and Electoral Competition: An Alternative to the Spatial Voting Model with Ideological Candidates and Partisan Voters Justin Buchler Assistant Professor Department of Political Science Case Western Reserve University 222 Mather House Cleveland OH 44106 Justin.Buchler@case.edu (216) 368-2646 Abstract This paper offers a new conceptual framework for thinking about competitive elections and candidate positioning. Current candidate positioning models are almost uniformly based on spatial voting assumptions for the electorate. This paper examines what happens
Connection. New Haven: Yale University Press. Miller Warren E. and J. Merrill Shanks. 1996. The New American Voter. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. Smith Richard A. 1995. “Interest Group Influence in the U.S. Congress.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 20: 89-139. Sullivan John. L. and Eric M. Uslaner. 1978. “Congressional Behavior and Electoral Marginality.” American Journal of Political Science 22: 536-553. Wittman Donald. 1977. “Candidates With Policy Preferences: A Dynamic Model.” Journal of Economic Theory 14:180-189. Wittman Donald. 1983. “Candidate Motivation: A


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