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Is War Rational? The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War |
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Abstract:
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Is war a rational pursuit? Pre-1900, war initiators won 73% of wars. Since 1945, the win rate is 33%. Assuming that states initiate wars planning to win, war's utility is declining. Miscalculation and misperception now dominate decisions for war. |
Most Common Document Word Stems:
war (255), initi (238), win (140), rate (107), outcom (106), ration (101), power (93), joiner (92), miscalcul (89), mid (88), mispercept (84), cow (74), state (73), increas (59), decis (53), 1 (52), time (52), averag (50), n (43), code (40), lose (40), |
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Association:
Name: The Midwest Political Science Association
URL: http://www.indiana.edu/~mpsa/
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Lindley, Dan. "Is War Rational? The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the The Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, Illinois, Apr 20, 2006 <Not Available>. 2009-05-25 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p139166_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Lindley, D. , 2006-04-20 "Is War Rational? The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the The Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, Illinois Online <PDF>. 2009-05-25 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p139166_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Is war a rational pursuit? Pre-1900, war initiators won 73% of wars. Since 1945, the win rate is 33%. Assuming that states initiate wars planning to win, war's utility is declining. Miscalculation and misperception now dominate decisions for war. |
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| Document Type: |
PDF |
| Page count: |
49 |
| Word count: |
14491 |
| Text sample: |
| Dan Lindley and Ryan Schildkraut 1 “Is War Rational? The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War” Paper prepared for the Panel: War and Security 14-11 Saturday 3:45 PM J. David Singer Chair Midwest Political Science Association 2006 Chicago **************** “By every rational standard North Korea should still be deterred. In practice however few wars are the result of rational calculations managed crises and highly intellectual escalation ladders.” (Cordesman 2002) “War seems to many to be an |
| A. ed. What Do We Know About War? (Lanham MD: Rowman & Littlefield 2000) Walt Stephen M. The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca NY: Cornell University Press 1987) Waltz Kenneth Theory of International Politics (New York NY: Random House 1979) Wang Kevin and James Lee Ray “Beginners and Winners: The Fate of Interstate Wars Involving Great Powers Since 1495 ” International Studies Quarterly Vol. 38 No. 1 (March 1994) Yamamoto Yoshinobu and Stuart A. Bremer “Wider Wars and Restless Nights; |
Similar Titles:
Social Movements, Policy Initiatives and Political Outcomes at the U.S. State Level
Is War Rational? The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War
Is War Rational? The Extent of Misperception and Miscalculation as Causes of War
Is War Rational? The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War
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