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Detecting Attempted Election Theft: Vote Counts, Voting Machines and Benford's Law |
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Abstract:
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I consider statistical methods to detect election fraud using, alternately, precinct level data and ballot image data with information about the machine on which each ballot was cast. I illustrate the methods using data from recent American elections |
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vote (255), 1 (230), machin (212), precinct (207), use (121), 2 (117), count (108), benford (107), 0 (104), law (102), test (99), valu (94), digit (90), tabl (89), day (78), candid (76), number (75), elect (74), yes (73), second (67), 5 (61), |
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Association:
Name: The Midwest Political Science Association
URL: http://www.indiana.edu/~mpsa/
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Mebane, Walter. "Detecting Attempted Election Theft: Vote Counts, Voting Machines and Benford's Law" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the The Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, Illinois, Apr 20, 2006 <Not Available>. 2009-05-25 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p140694_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Mebane, W. R. , 2006-04-20 "Detecting Attempted Election Theft: Vote Counts, Voting Machines and Benford's Law" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the The Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, Illinois Online <APPLICATION/NAPPDF>. 2009-05-25 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p140694_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: I consider statistical methods to detect election fraud using, alternately, precinct level data and ballot image data with information about the machine on which each ballot was cast. I illustrate the methods using data from recent American elections |
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| Detecting Attempted Election Theft: Vote Counts Voting ∗ Machines and Benford’s Law Walter R. Mebane Jr.† April 19 2006 ∗ Prepared for presentation at the 2006 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Asso- ciate Chicago IL April 20–23. Thanks to Daniel Dauplaise for sparking my interest in Benford’s Law and to Charlie Gibbons for several helpful suggestions. † Professor Department of Government Cornell University 217 White Hall Ithaca NY 14853–7901 (Phone: 607-255-2868; Fax: 607-255-4530; E-mail: wrm1@cornell.edu). Fraudulent elections |
| 0.0010 0.0005 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 0 500 1000 1500 0 500 1000 1500 votes for Kerry votes for Kerry Figure 3: Miami-Dade Election Day Precinct Vote Count Distributions 50 |
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