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The Rise of the Cultural Voter and What it Means for the American Party System |
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Abstract:
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Over the past 40 years, cultural differences and issues have come to play a central role in the outcome of presidential elections and how American voters view the two major parties and their candidates. Their strategic significance lies in how the Republicans have used them to sunder the New Deal coalition and pick the Democratic lock on both the White House and Congress. Their political significance lies in how American voters have begun to supplement, and often replace, old class-based identities with new cultural identities that are rooted in America’s growing racial-ethnic and religious diversity. Thus as the U. S. continues to diversify through expansionist immigration policies, ever-increasing proportions of the American electorate are coming to reside in more racially diverse counties. As a result, the American voter has become more and more sensitized to racial and ethnic divisions and less and less concerned about divisions within Christianity and social class inequalities. As a result, the presidential vote and party loyalties are becoming more and more polarized along racial and ethnic lines. In an earlier study, we found that racial diversity accentuates the vote for Republican nominees and attenuates it for Democratic nominees. Here we find, all things equal, that racial diversity increases Democratic identifications and decreases Republican identifications. In the short run, the Republican Party should remain competitive in presidential and congressional elections. But as the new immigrants become politically mobilized, the Democratic Party should eventually be restored to majority status. |
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racial (105), parti (69), polit (64), cultur (59), white (59), ident (56), social (53), american (48), divers (43), vote (42), identif (42), voter (41), republican (40), new (33), class (33), democrat (32), elect (32), presidenti (29), ethnic (29), measur (28), religi (24), |
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Association:
Name: American Political Science Association URL: http://www.apsanet.org
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Lieske, Joel. "The Rise of the Cultural Voter and What it Means for the American Party System" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott, Loews Philadelphia, and the Pennsylvania Convention Center, Philadelphia, PA, Aug 31, 2006 <Not Available>. 2009-05-24 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p152368_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Lieske, J. A. , 2006-08-31 "The Rise of the Cultural Voter and What it Means for the American Party System" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott, Loews Philadelphia, and the Pennsylvania Convention Center, Philadelphia, PA Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2009-05-24 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p152368_index.html |
Publication Type: Proceeding Abstract: Over the past 40 years, cultural differences and issues have come to play a central role in the outcome of presidential elections and how American voters view the two major parties and their candidates. Their strategic significance lies in how the Republicans have used them to sunder the New Deal coalition and pick the Democratic lock on both the White House and Congress. Their political significance lies in how American voters have begun to supplement, and often replace, old class-based identities with new cultural identities that are rooted in America’s growing racial-ethnic and religious diversity. Thus as the U. S. continues to diversify through expansionist immigration policies, ever-increasing proportions of the American electorate are coming to reside in more racially diverse counties. As a result, the American voter has become more and more sensitized to racial and ethnic divisions and less and less concerned about divisions within Christianity and social class inequalities. As a result, the presidential vote and party loyalties are becoming more and more polarized along racial and ethnic lines. In an earlier study, we found that racial diversity accentuates the vote for Republican nominees and attenuates it for Democratic nominees. Here we find, all things equal, that racial diversity increases Democratic identifications and decreases Republican identifications. In the short run, the Republican Party should remain competitive in presidential and congressional elections. But as the new immigrants become politically mobilized, the Democratic Party should eventually be restored to majority status. |
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| Document Type: |
application/pdf |
| Page count: |
31 |
| Word count: |
6331 |
| Text sample: |
| The Rise of the Cultural Voter and What It Means for the American Party System Abstract. Over the past 40 years cultural differences and issues have come to play a central role in the outcome of presidential elections and how American voters view the two major parties and their candidates. Their strategic significance lies in how the Republicans have used them to sunder the New Deal coalition and pick the Democratic lock on both the White House and Congress. |
| II III Social Identity White -.951*** -.805*** -.773*** Protestant -.469*** -.461*** -.336*** College -.358*** -.385*** -.380*** Cultural Context Percent White -1.033*** -.898*** Reference Groups Whites .009*** Blacks .007*** Conservatives -.032*** Liberals .027*** Constant 1.261*** 2.008*** 1.146*** % Correctly Predicted 59 60 68 Nagelkerke R² .06 .07 .24 N 23 757 23 392 15 869 *p<.05 **p<.01 ***p<.001 |
Similar Titles:
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The Effect of Social Class Identity on Presidential Vote Choice: The Role of Identity Stability and Political and Economic Context
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