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Experts and Base-Rates, Laymen and Single Case Information: Can Statistical Knowledge Prevent Exemplification Effects?

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Abstract:

Most studies in exemplification research show that recipients’ judgements are influ-enced by examples in the media, whereas base-rate information is usually ignored. In this study we assume that this is different for recipients who are familiar with base-rate information and who know about its diagnostic value. This expertise should neu-tralize the unilateral effect of exemplars on peoples´ quantitative perception of issues in favour of a stronger consideration of base-rate information.

A quasi-experimental survey was conducted in order to compare the influence of exemplars and base-rate information on two different groups of subjects: Those who are acquainted with base-rate information (statistic-experts) and those who aren’t (statistic-laymen). As expected, only base-rate information influenced the experts´ perception of the issue, while the exemplars remained without effect. By contrast the laymen were only influenced by exemplars but not by base-rate information. Results are discussed with respect to the implications for exemplification theory.
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Name: International Communication Association
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http://www.icahdq.org


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URL: http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p171103_index.html
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MLA Citation:

Blake, Christopher. and Daschmann, Gregor. "Experts and Base-Rates, Laymen and Single Case Information: Can Statistical Knowledge Prevent Exemplification Effects?" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Communication Association, TBA, San Francisco, CA, <Not Available>. 2009-05-24 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p171103_index.html>

APA Citation:

Blake, C. and Daschmann, G. "Experts and Base-Rates, Laymen and Single Case Information: Can Statistical Knowledge Prevent Exemplification Effects?" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Communication Association, TBA, San Francisco, CA <Not Available>. 2009-05-24 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p171103_index.html

Publication Type: Session Paper
Abstract: Most studies in exemplification research show that recipients’ judgements are influ-enced by examples in the media, whereas base-rate information is usually ignored. In this study we assume that this is different for recipients who are familiar with base-rate information and who know about its diagnostic value. This expertise should neu-tralize the unilateral effect of exemplars on peoples´ quantitative perception of issues in favour of a stronger consideration of base-rate information.

A quasi-experimental survey was conducted in order to compare the influence of exemplars and base-rate information on two different groups of subjects: Those who are acquainted with base-rate information (statistic-experts) and those who aren’t (statistic-laymen). As expected, only base-rate information influenced the experts´ perception of the issue, while the exemplars remained without effect. By contrast the laymen were only influenced by exemplars but not by base-rate information. Results are discussed with respect to the implications for exemplification theory.

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