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The Dutch No to the EU Constitution: EU Skepticism, Proxies, and the Campaign |
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Abstract:
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Who voted NO to the EU Constitutional Treaty in the Dutch 2005 national referendum? This study of vote choice and the campaign combines a content analysis of national newspapers and television news shows (N= 8395) with panel survey data (N= 1379). It investigates which factors influenced the intention to vote NO in the referendum prior to the campaign as well as the impact of campaign and media variables on the final vote choice. Results reveal that prior to the actual start of the campaign general skepticism towards the EU, disapproval of the incumbent government and feelings of national identity were the strongest determinants for the intention to vote NO in the referendum. The campaign was marked by a high degree of volatility with a considerable amount of voters changing from one side to the other over the course of the campaign. The referendum topic was highly visible in the news with a consistently positive tone towards the Constitution. In this context, higher levels of exposure to referendum news increased the likelihood of voters to switch over to the YES side. Despite the overall positive news environment many voters were cynical about the campaign as such which contributed to a NO vote. |
Most Common Document Word Stems:
eu (188), referendum (173), vote (172), campaign (118), 1 (98), polit (90), news (83), constitut (78), dutch (73), skeptic (60), m (59), effect (53), voter (49), media (48), studi (46), sd (46), exposur (44), 2 (43), yes (42), nation (41), intent (40), |
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EU Constitution, referendum, vote choice, EU skepticism, campaign effects |
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Association:
Name: International Communication Association URL: http://www.icahdq.org
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Schuck, Andreas. and De Vreese, Claes. "The Dutch No to the EU Constitution: EU Skepticism, Proxies, and the Campaign" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Communication Association, TBA, San Francisco, CA, May 23, 2007 <Not Available>. 2009-05-24 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p171747_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Schuck, A. and De Vreese, C. H. , 2007-05-23 "The Dutch No to the EU Constitution: EU Skepticism, Proxies, and the Campaign" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Communication Association, TBA, San Francisco, CA Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2009-05-24 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p171747_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Abstract: Who voted NO to the EU Constitutional Treaty in the Dutch 2005 national referendum? This study of vote choice and the campaign combines a content analysis of national newspapers and television news shows (N= 8395) with panel survey data (N= 1379). It investigates which factors influenced the intention to vote NO in the referendum prior to the campaign as well as the impact of campaign and media variables on the final vote choice. Results reveal that prior to the actual start of the campaign general skepticism towards the EU, disapproval of the incumbent government and feelings of national identity were the strongest determinants for the intention to vote NO in the referendum. The campaign was marked by a high degree of volatility with a considerable amount of voters changing from one side to the other over the course of the campaign. The referendum topic was highly visible in the news with a consistently positive tone towards the Constitution. In this context, higher levels of exposure to referendum news increased the likelihood of voters to switch over to the YES side. Despite the overall positive news environment many voters were cynical about the campaign as such which contributed to a NO vote. |
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| Document Type: |
application/pdf |
| Page count: |
40 |
| Word count: |
11250 |
| Text sample: |
| Why the Dutch said No to the EU Constitution: EU skepticism proxies and the campaign Andreas R.T. Schuck & Claes H. de Vreese CONTACT ADDRESS: Andreas R.T. Schuck The Amsterdam School of Communications Research ASCoR University of Amsterdam Kloveniersburgwal 48 1012 CX Amsterdam The Netherlands Tel: +31 20 525 3750 Email: a.r.t.schuck@uva.nl Paper prepared for presentation at the 57th Annual Conference of the ICA San Francisco May 24-28 2007. Andreas R.T. Schuck (MA) is a PhD candidate and Claes |
| Another OLS regression (not reported here) has been run predicting cynicism about the campaign by overall news exposure and did not yield a significant effect of news exposure on cynicism. 25 Adding up the exposure to each individual media outlet divided by the number of media outlets yields a mean for average overall exposure of M=1.4 (SD=.67). Respondents who fall below this mean score in a next step have been coded as 0 (low exposure) and respondents who fall |
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