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Political Instability and Long-Wave Theories: A Quantitative Analysis

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Abstract:

Students of history?s longue durée often explain the incidence of political instability and revolt as the product of long-term cycles demographic, economic and international relations cycles. Using a data set covering 24 countries over four- to five-hundred years, this analysis examines the relationship between political instability and revolt and Kondratieff waves, secular inflation cycles, long-term demographic booms and busts, and hegemonic cycles. It finds that the world system is most vulnerable to domestic political instability under periods of long-run inflation and rising hegemonic power. The article concludes with a discussion of the potential links between inflationary cycles, hegemonic power and domestic political stability.
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Association:
Name: International Studies Association 48th Annual Convention
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http://www.isanet.org


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URL: http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p178503_index.html
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MLA Citation:

Boswell, Terry., Linton, April. and Cohen, Joseph. "Political Instability and Long-Wave Theories: A Quantitative Analysis" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association 48th Annual Convention, Hilton Chicago, CHICAGO, IL, USA, Feb 28, 2007 <Not Available>. 2009-05-24 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p178503_index.html>

APA Citation:

Boswell, T. , Linton, A. and Cohen, J. N. , 2007-02-28 "Political Instability and Long-Wave Theories: A Quantitative Analysis" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association 48th Annual Convention, Hilton Chicago, CHICAGO, IL, USA <Not Available>. 2009-05-24 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p178503_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Students of history?s longue durée often explain the incidence of political instability and revolt as the product of long-term cycles demographic, economic and international relations cycles. Using a data set covering 24 countries over four- to five-hundred years, this analysis examines the relationship between political instability and revolt and Kondratieff waves, secular inflation cycles, long-term demographic booms and busts, and hegemonic cycles. It finds that the world system is most vulnerable to domestic political instability under periods of long-run inflation and rising hegemonic power. The article concludes with a discussion of the potential links between inflationary cycles, hegemonic power and domestic political stability.

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