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Association: Name: International Studies Association 48th Annual Convention URL: http://www.isanet.org
Citation: URL: http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p178587_index.html Direct Link: HTML Code:

Shih, Victor. and Steinberg, David. "Institutional Constraints, Mercantilism or Free Riding? The Political Economy of Changes in Global Dollar Holdings, 2000-2005" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association 48th Annual Convention, Hilton Chicago, CHICAGO, IL, USA, Feb 28, 2007 <Not Available>. 2009-05-24 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p178587_index.html>

Shih, V. and Steinberg, D. A. , 2007-02-28 "Institutional Constraints, Mercantilism or Free Riding? The Political Economy of Changes in Global Dollar Holdings, 2000-2005" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association 48th Annual Convention, Hilton Chicago, CHICAGO, IL, USA Online <PDF>. 2009-05-24 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p178587_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Abstract: Economists have debated whether or not the dollar's role as the main foreign exchange reserve asset will disappear in the next few years. Some suggest that the dollar is likely to lose its key currency role due to collective action problems, while others suggest that mercantilist preferences will lead central banks to continue acquiring dollar assets. This paper argues that a third factor, domestic and international political institutions, influences reserve policy. Institutions constrain policymakers and aggregate preferences, determining the relative strengths of free riding and mercantilist incentives in a given case. In this paper, we test these theories using monthly data on changes in holdings of US treasuries between 2000 and 2005, a period when the dollar was in nearly continuous decline. The results suggest that free riding concerns were less important than previously expected. Some support for the mercantilist thesis is found. The data provide evidence for both domestic and international institutionalist theories: central bank independence and the European Monetary Union reduce dollar holdings, while the G-7 and multiple veto institutions increase acquisitions of dollars. We draw out the implications of this finding for theory and policymakers.

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