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Early Warning for the Prevention of Genocide and Mass Atrocities |
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Abstract:
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Early warning is universally accepted to be one of the pillars of effective prevention of genocide. The obligation to prevent genocide, therefore, implies the need for an effective early warning capacity. Most analysts have judged current risk assessment and early warning practices to be adequate, if imperfect, pointing to other factors in explaining failures to prevent mass atrocities. After sketching a basic conceptual framework for early warning, this paper discusses significant limitations of a leading genocide risk assessment model. This analysis, and the identification of additional challenges, suggests that the field may be further than is commonly acknowledged from developing effective early warning methods and mechanisms for the prevention of genocide and mass atrocities. |
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genocid (128), risk (90), ew (67), warn (58), prevent (53), assess (46), model (45), harff (45), earli (42), state (38), situat (32), polit (31), conflict (30), inform (30), analysi (30), use (29), factor (28), one (28), effect (23), p (22), intern (22), |
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Association:
Name: International Studies Association 48th Annual Convention
URL: http://www.isanet.org
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Woocher, Lawrence. "Early Warning for the Prevention of Genocide and Mass Atrocities" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association 48th Annual Convention, Hilton Chicago, CHICAGO, IL, USA, Feb 28, 2007 <Not Available>. 2009-05-24 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p178866_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Woocher, L. , 2007-02-28 "Early Warning for the Prevention of Genocide and Mass Atrocities" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association 48th Annual Convention, Hilton Chicago, CHICAGO, IL, USA Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2009-05-24 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p178866_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Early warning is universally accepted to be one of the pillars of effective prevention of genocide. The obligation to prevent genocide, therefore, implies the need for an effective early warning capacity. Most analysts have judged current risk assessment and early warning practices to be adequate, if imperfect, pointing to other factors in explaining failures to prevent mass atrocities. After sketching a basic conceptual framework for early warning, this paper discusses significant limitations of a leading genocide risk assessment model. This analysis, and the identification of additional challenges, suggests that the field may be further than is commonly acknowledged from developing effective early warning methods and mechanisms for the prevention of genocide and mass atrocities. |
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application/pdf |
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7074 |
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| Early Warning for the Prevention of Genocide and Mass Atrocities Paper prepared for 48th Annual ISA Convention Chicago Panel on “New Strategies for Effective Conflict Early Warning” March 1 2007 Lawrence Woocher Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention United States Institute of Peace lwoocher@usip.org Abstract Early warning is universally accepted to be one of the pillars of effective prevention of genocide. The obligation to prevent genocide therefore implies the need for an effective early warning capacity. Most analysts have |
| than one year after onset of state failure. 26 Mike Daniels Assessing the Genocide and Political Mass Murder Framework: The Case of Uzbekistan. The George Washington International Law Review (2005) 37 p. 928. 27 Harff 2003 op. cit. p. 69. 28 Ibid. p. 65. 29 Gerd Gigerenzer and Adrian Edwards. Simple tools for understanding risks: from innumeracy to insight. British Medical Journal (2003) 327: 741-744. 30 These numbers could be shifted based on the “cut point” used to distinguish |
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