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Reacting to Terrorism: Probabilities, Consequences, and the Persistence of Fear
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Mueller: Reacting to terrorism ISA 2007 February 6, 2007
2
of 2001, fewer people have died in America from international terrorism than have drowned in toilets.
Even with the September 11 attacks included in the count, however, the number of Americans
killed by international terrorism over the period is not a great deal more than the number killed by lightning--or by accident-causing deer or by severe allergic reactions to peanuts over the same period. In almost all years the total number of people worldwide who die at the hands of international terrorists is not much more than the number who drown in bathtubs in the United States--some 300-400.
1
Americans worry intensely about "another 9/11," but if one of these were to occur every three
months for the next five years, the chance of being killed in one of them is two one-hundredths of one percent: the posited attacks would kill 60,000 which is about .02 percent of 300,000,000. This would be, of course, an extended and major tragedy, but an individual's chances of being killed, while no longer microscopic, would still remain small even under this extreme scenario.
Another assessment comes from astronomer Alan Harris. Using State Department figures, he
assumes a worldwide death rate from international terrorism of 1000 per year--that is, he assumes in his estimate that there would be another 9/11 somewhere in the world every several years. Over an 80 year period under those conditions some 80,000 deaths would occur which would mean that the lifetime probability that a resident of the globe will die at the hands of international terrorists is about one in 75,000 (6 billion divided by 80,000). This, he points out, is about the same likelihood that one would die over the same interval from the impact on the earth of an especially ill-directed asteroid or comet. If there are no repeats of 9/11, the lifetime probability of being killed by an international terrorist becomes about one in 120,000.
2
For such numbers to change radically, terrorists would have to become vastly more capable of
inflicting damage. In fact, they would pretty much need to acquire an atomic arsenal and the capacity to deploy and detonate it.
In the last few years, the State Department has changed its definitions so that much domestic
terrorism--including much of what is happening in the war in Iraq--is now included in its terrorism count.
3
Current numbers, therefore, are not comparable to earlier ones.
However, when terrorism becomes really extensive in an area we generally no longer call it
terrorism, but rather war or insurgency. Thus, the Irish Republican Army was generally taken to be a terrorist enterprise, while fighters in Algeria or Sri Lanka in the 1990s were considered to be combatants who were employing guerrilla techniques in a civil war situation--even though some of them came from, or were substantially aided by, people from outside the country. Some people, notably President George
1
In almost all years fewer than 10 Americans die worldwide at the hands of international terrorists: United States
Department of State, Patterns of Global Terrorism, 1997 (April 1998), 85. An average of 90 people are killed each year by lightning in the United States: National Safety Council (Chicago), Accident Facts (1997), 120. About 100 Americans die per year from accidents caused by deer: Andrew C. Revkin, "Coming to the Suburbs: A Hit Squad for Deer," New York Times, 30 November 1998, p. A1. The same number holds for peanut allergies: http://blogcritics.org/archives/2004/09/19/161029.php, accessed July 25, 2006. Bathtubs and toilets: John Stossel, Give Me a Break (New York: HarperCollins, 2004), p. 77. See also Bruce Schneier, Beyond Fear: Thinking Sensibly About Security in an Uncertain World (New York: Copernicus, 2003), pp. 11, 237, 241-42.
2
Harris explains his calculations at http://psweb.sbs.ohio-state.edu/faculty/jmueller/overblown.html. See also
Schneier, Beyond, pp. 237-42.
3
See National Counterterrorism Center, Report on Incidents of Terrorism 2005, 11 April 2006, pp. ii-iii.
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Mueller: Reacting to terrorism ISA 2007 February 6, 2007
2
of 2001, fewer people have died in America from international terrorism than have drowned in toilets.
Even with the September 11 attacks included in the count, however, the number of Americans
killed by international terrorism over the period is not a great deal more than the number killed by
lightning--or by accident-causing deer or by severe allergic reactions to peanuts over the same period. In
almost all years the total number of people worldwide who die at the hands of international terrorists is
not much more than the number who drown in bathtubs in the United States--some 300-400.
1
Americans worry intensely about "another 9/11," but if one of these were to occur every three
months for the next five years, the chance of being killed in one of them is two one-hundredths of one
percent: the posited attacks would kill 60,000 which is about .02 percent of 300,000,000. This would be,
of course, an extended and major tragedy, but an individual's chances of being killed, while no longer
microscopic, would still remain small even under this extreme scenario.
Another assessment comes from astronomer Alan Harris. Using State Department figures, he
assumes a worldwide death rate from international terrorism of 1000 per year--that is, he assumes in his
estimate that there would be another 9/11 somewhere in the world every several years. Over an 80 year
period under those conditions some 80,000 deaths would occur which would mean that the lifetime
probability that a resident of the globe will die at the hands of international terrorists is about one in
75,000 (6 billion divided by 80,000). This, he points out, is about the same likelihood that one would die
over the same interval from the impact on the earth of an especially ill-directed asteroid or comet. If there
are no repeats of 9/11, the lifetime probability of being killed by an international terrorist becomes about
one in 120,000.
2
For such numbers to change radically, terrorists would have to become vastly more capable of
inflicting damage. In fact, they would pretty much need to acquire an atomic arsenal and the capacity to
deploy and detonate it.
In the last few years, the State Department has changed its definitions so that much domestic
terrorism--including much of what is happening in the war in Iraq--is now included in its terrorism count.
3
Current numbers, therefore, are not comparable to earlier ones.
However, when terrorism becomes really extensive in an area we generally no longer call it
terrorism, but rather war or insurgency. Thus, the Irish Republican Army was generally taken to be a
terrorist enterprise, while fighters in Algeria or Sri Lanka in the 1990s were considered to be combatants
who were employing guerrilla techniques in a civil war situation--even though some of them came from,
or were substantially aided by, people from outside the country. Some people, notably President George
1
In almost all years fewer than 10 Americans die worldwide at the hands of international terrorists: United States
Department of State, Patterns of Global Terrorism, 1997 (April 1998), 85. An average of 90 people are killed each year
by lightning in the United States: National Safety Council (Chicago), Accident Facts (1997), 120. About 100
Americans die per year from accidents caused by deer: Andrew C. Revkin, "Coming to the Suburbs: A Hit Squad for
Deer," New York Times, 30 November 1998, p. A1. The same number holds for peanut allergies:
http://blogcritics.org/archives/2004/09/19/161029.php, accessed July 25, 2006. Bathtubs and toilets: John Stossel, Give
Me a Break (New York: HarperCollins, 2004), p. 77. See also Bruce Schneier, Beyond Fear: Thinking Sensibly About
Security in an Uncertain World (New York: Copernicus, 2003), pp. 11, 237, 241-42.
2
Harris explains his calculations at http://psweb.sbs.ohio-state.edu/faculty/jmueller/overblown.html. See also
Schneier, Beyond, pp. 237-42.
3
See National Counterterrorism Center, Report on Incidents of Terrorism 2005, 11 April 2006, pp. ii-iii.
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