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Toward a Spatial Model of the Domestic Politics of External Protracted Conflict Resolution, with Data from the Palestinian Case

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Abstract:

This study models the domestic politics of resolving protracted inter-nation conflict. It attends, more specifically, to two questions: First, how might we estimate the domestic determination of national-level reservation points, that is, the most the nation is willing to concede, on stakes disputed in the international conflict? Second, what is the level of severity of opposition likely to accompany any particular agreement? The study specifies some basic equations addressing these two questions that complement yet differ from spatial expected utility modeling. It also delimits theoretical advantages of plotting individual elites as the primitive units of domestic spaces. One of these is the ability to integrate sociopolitical cohesion networks into our models of domestic conflict and stability. After elaborating these theoretical elements of spatially modeling the domestic arena, the study addresses the two first elements of empirical estimation, selecting issue-dimensions and identifying influentials. One design for estimating the relative salience of distinct issue-dimensions is to regress overall views on an actual or hypothetical agreement over views on more particular aspects of the agreement, and to regress overall views on a particular domain of disputed stakes over views on particular facets of that domain. This study presents such models based on Palestinian public opinion data. The study then compares and contrasts the results of two distinct approaches to elite identification which I used to identify Palestinian elites during the interim period of the Oslo peace process, one based on a content analysis of primary as well as secondary source literature and the other on interviews of Palestinian experts on Palestinian politics. The analysis of the two approaches concludes by prescribing a particular synthesis of them that contributes to full estimation of spatial models.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

1 (122), 2 (98), elit (89), individu (72), palestinian (67), data (66), base (62), 3 (61), posit (58), 5 (57), issu (55), dimens (55), space (54), 4 (51), one (49), model (48), al (46), relat (45), name (43), number (43), survey (42),

Author's Keywords:

protracted conflict, conflict management, conflict resolution, internal-external linkages, two-level games, spatial modeling, social network analysis, issue salience, elite identification, Palestinian-Israeli conflict
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MLA Citation:

Friedman, Gil. "Toward a Spatial Model of the Domestic Politics of External Protracted Conflict Resolution, with Data from the Palestinian Case" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association 48th Annual Convention, Hilton Chicago, CHICAGO, IL, USA, Feb 28, 2007 <Not Available>. 2009-05-24 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p181239_index.html>

APA Citation:

Friedman, G. , 2007-02-28 "Toward a Spatial Model of the Domestic Politics of External Protracted Conflict Resolution, with Data from the Palestinian Case" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association 48th Annual Convention, Hilton Chicago, CHICAGO, IL, USA Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2009-05-24 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p181239_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: This study models the domestic politics of resolving protracted inter-nation conflict. It attends, more specifically, to two questions: First, how might we estimate the domestic determination of national-level reservation points, that is, the most the nation is willing to concede, on stakes disputed in the international conflict? Second, what is the level of severity of opposition likely to accompany any particular agreement? The study specifies some basic equations addressing these two questions that complement yet differ from spatial expected utility modeling. It also delimits theoretical advantages of plotting individual elites as the primitive units of domestic spaces. One of these is the ability to integrate sociopolitical cohesion networks into our models of domestic conflict and stability. After elaborating these theoretical elements of spatially modeling the domestic arena, the study addresses the two first elements of empirical estimation, selecting issue-dimensions and identifying influentials. One design for estimating the relative salience of distinct issue-dimensions is to regress overall views on an actual or hypothetical agreement over views on more particular aspects of the agreement, and to regress overall views on a particular domain of disputed stakes over views on particular facets of that domain. This study presents such models based on Palestinian public opinion data. The study then compares and contrasts the results of two distinct approaches to elite identification which I used to identify Palestinian elites during the interim period of the Oslo peace process, one based on a content analysis of primary as well as secondary source literature and the other on interviews of Palestinian experts on Palestinian politics. The analysis of the two approaches concludes by prescribing a particular synthesis of them that contributes to full estimation of spatial models.

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Document Type: application/pdf
Page count: 49
Word count: 13457
Text sample:
Toward a Spatial Model of the Domestic Politics of External Protracted Conflict Resolution with Data from the Palestinian Case Gil Friedman Tel Aviv University GilF@post.tau.ac.il Telephone: 972-3-640-9743; 972-0545-7654-88 Fax: 972-3-640-9515 Draft only Citation only with author’s permission Introduction This study models the domestic politics of resolving protracted inter-nation conflict. It attends more specifically to two questions: First how might we estimate the domestic determination of the national-level reservation points (e.g. Raiffa 1982) that is the most the nation is
beyond observation. Archival data (see e.g. Burt and Lin 1977) or printed data more 48 generally will likely not provide sufficient data on any but perhaps the most prominent leaders. Face-to- face interviews are crucial for the collection of data on elite confidential relations and views on sensitive matters. The question becomes to frame the items of the interview instrument in ways that minimize or obscure the sensitivity and obtrusiveness of the data sought. 20 Bueno de Mesquita and


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