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Small Cities’ Fates: Population, Income and Employment Change in Smaller Metro Areas in the United States, 1970 to 2000

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Abstract:

Dominant theories of urban change do not do a good job of predicting what paths smaller metro areas in the United States have taken over the latter part of the twentieth century. In this paper, I analyze what attributes of urban areas most affect changes in population and median household income during the period 1970 to 2000, focusing on 80 smaller metro areas. Using fixed effects regression analyses, I show that while the predictions of some researchers prove accurate – such as the importance of immigration streams and higher education – the smaller places in this study also illustrate that other predictions – primarily about employment levels in specific sectors – do not hold true. According to many prominent theories of urban change, smaller metro areas should not see increases in income levels based on higher wages or based on jobs in high end services or the FIRE (finance, insurance and real estate) industries; nonetheless, the smaller places on paths of success illustrate just that. And although growth is more concentrated in the West and South of the United States, region does not dictate success overall for this group; instead, region appears to be a historically contingent correlate to success.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

popul (77), citi (73), 1 (65), time (62), smaller (61), area (61), incom (55), metro (47), data (45), place (45), chang (40), servic (38), employ (38), urban (33), level (30), percent (30), west (28), south (28), state (25), new (25), low (25),

Author's Keywords:

Small cities; population change; income change
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Name: American Sociological Association
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MLA Citation:

Norman, Jon. "Small Cities’ Fates: Population, Income and Employment Change in Smaller Metro Areas in the United States, 1970 to 2000" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Sociological Association, TBA, New York, New York City, Aug 11, 2007 <Not Available>. 2009-05-24 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p182656_index.html>

APA Citation:

Norman, J. R. , 2007-08-11 "Small Cities’ Fates: Population, Income and Employment Change in Smaller Metro Areas in the United States, 1970 to 2000" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Sociological Association, TBA, New York, New York City Online <PDF>. 2009-05-24 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p182656_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Dominant theories of urban change do not do a good job of predicting what paths smaller metro areas in the United States have taken over the latter part of the twentieth century. In this paper, I analyze what attributes of urban areas most affect changes in population and median household income during the period 1970 to 2000, focusing on 80 smaller metro areas. Using fixed effects regression analyses, I show that while the predictions of some researchers prove accurate – such as the importance of immigration streams and higher education – the smaller places in this study also illustrate that other predictions – primarily about employment levels in specific sectors – do not hold true. According to many prominent theories of urban change, smaller metro areas should not see increases in income levels based on higher wages or based on jobs in high end services or the FIRE (finance, insurance and real estate) industries; nonetheless, the smaller places on paths of success illustrate just that. And although growth is more concentrated in the West and South of the United States, region does not dictate success overall for this group; instead, region appears to be a historically contingent correlate to success.

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Document Type: PDF
Page count: 21
Word count: 6369
Text sample:
Small Cities’ Fates: Population Income and Employment Change in Smaller Metro Areas in the United States 1970 to 2000 Jon Norman Department of Sociology University of California Berkeley Introduction Dominant theories of urban change do not do a good job of predicting what paths smaller metro areas in the United States have taken over the latter part of the twentieth century. In this paper I analyze what attributes of urban areas most affect changes in population and median household
John Markham. 1993. “Ties that Bind: Central Cities Suburbs and the New Metropolitan Region”. Economic Development Quarterly. 7 (4): 341-357. Stanback Thomas. 2002. The Transforming Metropolitan Economy. New Brunswick NJ: Center for Urban Policy Research Rutgers The State University of New Jersey. Vance James. 1970. The Merchant’s World: the Geography of Wholesaling. Englewood NJ: Prentice-Hall. Vey Jennifer and Benjamin Forman. 2002. Demographic Change in Medium-Sized Cities: Evidence from the 2000 Census. Brookings Institution Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy.


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