Author's Keywords: elections, campaigns, campaign effects, information effects, campaign events, volatility, 2004 presidential election	Convention Convention is an application service for managing large or small academic conferences, annual meetings, and other types of events! Submission - Custom fields, multiple submission types, tracks, audio visual, multiple upload formats, automatic conversion to pdf. Review - Peer Review, Bulk reviewer assignment, bulk emails, ranking, z-score statistics, and multiple worksheets! Reports - Many standard and custom reports generated while you wait. Print programs with participant indexes, event grids, and more! Scheduling - Flexible and convenient grid scheduling within rooms and buildings. Conflict checking and advanced filtering. Communication - Bulk email tools to help your administrators send reminders and responses. Use form letters, a message center, and much more! Management - Search tools, duplicate people management, editing tools, submission transfers, many tools to manage a variety of conference management headaches! Click here for more information.
Association: Name: Midwest Political Science Association URL: http://www.indiana.edu/~mpsa/
Citation: URL: http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p197951_index.html Direct Link: HTML Code:

Rickershauser, Jill. "Volatility in Prediction Markets: A Measure of Information Flow in Political Campaigns" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hotel, Chicago, IL, Apr 12, 2007 <Not Available>. 2010-01-24 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p197951_index.html>

Rickershauser, J. , 2007-04-12 "Volatility in Prediction Markets: A Measure of Information Flow in Political Campaigns" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hotel, Chicago, IL Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2010-01-24 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p197951_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Abstract: Each presidential campaign has stories that seem to summarize the election in an anecdote, such as Clinton�s campaign slogan, �It�s the Economy, Stupid,� and John Kennedy�s performance in the televised debate against Nixon. However, some stories may seem to epitomize the campaign when they actually did not alter the outcome of the election or even relate to the underlying factors that did influence the outcome. How can we adjudicate between the events that mattered and those that did not? Building on work in the market microstructure literature in economics, this paper uses the volatility of prices of the �Bush wins the popular vote� contract on the Tradesports prediction market as a measure of information flow. In the 2004 campaign, the events that added the most information to the campaign were John Kerry�s nomination speech, the CBS story about Bush�s National Guard service and its retraction, the New York Times story about the explosives that went missing in Iraq in 2003, and the presidential debates.

What Information Matters?: Political Prediction Markets & the 2004 Presidential Campaign

The Effects of Political Information on Expectations about Election Outcomes: Campaigns and Futures Markets