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Testing Theories of Radical Right Voting: Social Structure versus Political Agency and Electoral Support for the Attack Party in Bulgaria |
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Abstract:
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Why do people vote for radical right parties? Is radical right voting determined by social structures, or is it induced by the political opportunities of electoral competition? This research tests for competing explanations of electoral support for the radical right on the example of the 2005 Bulgarian parliamentary elections. Methodologically, the study applies a two-stage design examining the determinants of voter demand and political supply in separate models. This approach yields two principal findings: First, that party-specific variables, such as confidence in the radical right party and its charismatic leader, are the strongest and most consistent predictors of radical right voting when tested against sociodemographic variables, general political attitudes, and economic interests. Second, the results suggest that radical right political agency affects the distribution of electoral preferences whereby voters pertaining to certain sociological and attitudinal categories—blue-collar workers, older voters, and medium-education cohorts in the large cities, voters sharing centrist ideology, lower levels of political trust, and ethnocentrism—are more likely than other groups to vote radical right as an expression of protest against the incumbents, despite the lack of proximity with extreme right ideologies. |
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right (220), radic (178), polit (177), vote (174), parti (145), elector (110), voter (98), model (82), variabl (70), attack (65), 2005 (61), minor (56), ethnic (55), signific (46), support (45), extrem (42), p (42), nation (41), share (36), statist (36), new (35), |
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Radical right parties, East-European party politics, Attack Party, parliamentary elections Bulgaria |
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Association:
Name: American Political Science Association URL: http://www.apsanet.org
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Stefanova, Boyka. "Testing Theories of Radical Right Voting: Social Structure versus Political Agency and Electoral Support for the Attack Party in Bulgaria" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hyatt Regency Chicago and the Sheraton Chicago Hotel and Towers, Chicago, IL, Aug 30, 2007 <Not Available>. 2009-05-27 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p209637_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Stefanova, B. , 2007-08-30 "Testing Theories of Radical Right Voting: Social Structure versus Political Agency and Electoral Support for the Attack Party in Bulgaria" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hyatt Regency Chicago and the Sheraton Chicago Hotel and Towers, Chicago, IL Online <PDF>. 2009-05-27 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p209637_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Abstract: Why do people vote for radical right parties? Is radical right voting determined by social structures, or is it induced by the political opportunities of electoral competition? This research tests for competing explanations of electoral support for the radical right on the example of the 2005 Bulgarian parliamentary elections. Methodologically, the study applies a two-stage design examining the determinants of voter demand and political supply in separate models. This approach yields two principal findings: First, that party-specific variables, such as confidence in the radical right party and its charismatic leader, are the strongest and most consistent predictors of radical right voting when tested against sociodemographic variables, general political attitudes, and economic interests. Second, the results suggest that radical right political agency affects the distribution of electoral preferences whereby voters pertaining to certain sociological and attitudinal categories—blue-collar workers, older voters, and medium-education cohorts in the large cities, voters sharing centrist ideology, lower levels of political trust, and ethnocentrism—are more likely than other groups to vote radical right as an expression of protest against the incumbents, despite the lack of proximity with extreme right ideologies. |
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27 |
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11503 |
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| Testing Theories of Radical Right Voting: Social Structure versus Political Agency and Electoral Support for the Attack Party in Bulgaria* Boyka Stefanova Department of Political Science and Geography University of Texas San Antonio One UTSA Circle San Antonio TX 78249 boyka.stefanova@utsa.edu Prepared for delivery at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association August 30 -September 2 2007 Abstract Why do people vote for radical right parties? Is radical right voting determined by social structures or is it |
| party voters. 14 The maximum predicted probability of radical right voting in the reduced political attitudes model is .16. 15 Test results for sub-sample Aggregate model: 16 The coefficient of correlation between the percentage composition of ethnic Turks and minorities in the Bulgarian population and MRF voting by district in the 2005 election is r =.97*** and r = .96 *** respectively. ***p < .01. 17 This variable reflects also the geographic distribution of the ethnic Turkish minority by |
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