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The Political Consequences of Economic Globalization: Public Opinion and Senate Roll Call Voting on Trade and Social Welfare Liberalization

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Abstract:

Although economic integration has progressed steadily during the postwar period, Congressional votes related to trade, economic dislocation, and associated social policies are consistently controversial. Some scholars have explained the endurance of trade barriers by arguing that protectionist interests have organizational advantages (Schattschneider 1935; Destler 1986; Cassing, McKeown and Ochs 1986). More recently, however, Bailey (2003) has claimed that diffuse interests, particularly skilled labor, exert an important and consistent influence on congressional votes by virtue of anticipated reaction (Kingdon 1973; Denzau and Munger 1986; Arnold 1990; Verdier 1994). The logic is that representatives serve diffuse groups of voters because failing to do so will lead rival politicians, interest groups, the media and the president to activate interests that benefit from liberalization.

These competing claims speak to broader debates about the extent to which constituent interests and preferences motivate legislators votes. There are, however, three limitations to extant work. First, in assessing the relative influence of constituency, almost all of the studies employ aggregate measures of constituency interest, rather than actual opinion in the members state or district. Second, previous work generally only specifies free-trade versus protectionist interests and does not consider whether representatives votes reflect the mean interests of the whole state or of the members partisans (e.g. partisan delegates). Third, few examinations of trade votes analyze related social policies, which are more likely to be partisan than trade votes. In this way, previous studies may underreport party influence in matters related to economic integration. In this paper, we test the linkages between constituency opinion and key trade and social welfare votes in the Senate from 1993 to 1994 using data from the ANES Senate Election Study. Employing micro-level evidence, we find support for the impact of constituent policy preferences, ideological beliefs, and partisan identification on Senate votes.

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vote (237), trade (150), constitu (81), measur (76), model (73), parti (72), interest (62), state (60), prefer (58), senat (56), effect (54), polit (54), polici (52), econom (52), social (52), percentag (50), welfar (49), import (43), support (40), bill (40), variabl (39),

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trade, globalization, senate
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Aldrich, John., Merolla, Jennifer. and Kramer, Claire. "The Political Consequences of Economic Globalization: Public Opinion and Senate Roll Call Voting on Trade and Social Welfare Liberalization" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hyatt Regency Chicago and the Sheraton Chicago Hotel and Towers, Chicago, IL, Aug 30, 2007 <Not Available>. 2010-03-13 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p209931_index.html>

APA Citation:

Aldrich, J. H., Merolla, J. and Kramer, C. V. , 2007-08-30 "The Political Consequences of Economic Globalization: Public Opinion and Senate Roll Call Voting on Trade and Social Welfare Liberalization" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hyatt Regency Chicago and the Sheraton Chicago Hotel and Towers, Chicago, IL Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2010-03-13 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p209931_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Although economic integration has progressed steadily during the postwar period, Congressional votes related to trade, economic dislocation, and associated social policies are consistently controversial. Some scholars have explained the endurance of trade barriers by arguing that protectionist interests have organizational advantages (Schattschneider 1935; Destler 1986; Cassing, McKeown and Ochs 1986). More recently, however, Bailey (2003) has claimed that diffuse interests, particularly skilled labor, exert an important and consistent influence on congressional votes by virtue of anticipated reaction (Kingdon 1973; Denzau and Munger 1986; Arnold 1990; Verdier 1994). The logic is that representatives serve diffuse groups of voters because failing to do so will lead rival politicians, interest groups, the media and the president to activate interests that benefit from liberalization.

These competing claims speak to broader debates about the extent to which constituent interests and preferences motivate legislators votes. There are, however, three limitations to extant work. First, in assessing the relative influence of constituency, almost all of the studies employ aggregate measures of constituency interest, rather than actual opinion in the members state or district. Second, previous work generally only specifies free-trade versus protectionist interests and does not consider whether representatives votes reflect the mean interests of the whole state or of the members partisans (e.g. partisan delegates). Third, few examinations of trade votes analyze related social policies, which are more likely to be partisan than trade votes. In this way, previous studies may underreport party influence in matters related to economic integration. In this paper, we test the linkages between constituency opinion and key trade and social welfare votes in the Senate from 1993 to 1994 using data from the ANES Senate Election Study. Employing micro-level evidence, we find support for the impact of constituent policy preferences, ideological beliefs, and partisan identification on Senate votes.

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The Political Consequences of Economic Globalization: Public Opinion and Senate Roll Call Voting on Trade and Social Welfare Liberalization John H. Aldrich Duke University aldrich@duke.edu Claire V. Kramer Corporate Executive Board claire.kramer@gmail.com Jennifer L. Merolla Claremont Graduate University jennifer.merolla@cgu.edu Paper prepared for delivery at the 2007 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association Chicago Illinois August 30th-September 2nd. ABSTRACT Although economic integration has progressed steadily during the postwar period Congressional votes related to trade economic dislocation and associated
Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science 2: 3-21. Uslaner Eric M. 1998. “Let the Chits Fall Where They May? Executive and Constituency Influences on Congressional Voting on NAFTA.” Legislative Studies Quarterly. Vol. 23 No. 3: 347-71. Verdier Daniel. 1994. Democracy and International Trade: Britain France and the United States 1860-1990. Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press. Weisberg Herbert F. 1978. “Evaluating Theories of Congressional Roll-Call Voting.” American Journal of Political Science Vol. 22 No. 3: 554-577. Whalen Richard J.


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