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Moderate Now, Win Votes Later: The Electoral Consequences of Parties’ Policy Shifts in Twenty-Five Postwar Democracies |
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Abstract:
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A central tenet of spatial modeling and political representation studies is that, to the extent that citizens vote prospectively, they evaluate the policies that political parties are currently proposing. Yet research on issue evolution and macro-partisanship suggests that significant time periods often elapse before voters update their perceptions of parties’ policy positions. We report cross-national, time-series, analyses on the relationship between parties’ policy programmes and election outcomes in 25 postwar democracies, which suggest that parties’ policy promises exert lagged effects on their electoral support: namely, parties gain votes at the current election when they moderated their policies at the previous election. By contrast, we find only weak and inconsistent evidence that parties’ support responds to their current policy programmes. Our findings have important implications for spatial modeling and for studies on political representation. |
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parti (255), polici (157), elect (149), shift (126), vote (111), posit (97), effect (90), current (89), elector (71), left (68), right (66), estim (66), polit (64), model (61), 1 (57), support (57), previous (52), soc (51), variabl (51), voter (48), democrat (48), |
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Association:
Name: American Political Science Association
URL: http://www.apsanet.org
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Adams, James. and Somer-Topcu, Zeynep. "Moderate Now, Win Votes Later: The Electoral Consequences of Parties’ Policy Shifts in Twenty-Five Postwar Democracies" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hyatt Regency Chicago and the Sheraton Chicago Hotel and Towers, Chicago, IL, Aug 30, 2007 <Not Available>. 2009-05-27 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p210471_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Adams, J. and Somer-Topcu, Z. , 2007-08-30 "Moderate Now, Win Votes Later: The Electoral Consequences of Parties’ Policy Shifts in Twenty-Five Postwar Democracies" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hyatt Regency Chicago and the Sheraton Chicago Hotel and Towers, Chicago, IL Online <PDF>. 2009-05-27 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p210471_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: A central tenet of spatial modeling and political representation studies is that, to the extent that citizens vote prospectively, they evaluate the policies that political parties are currently proposing. Yet research on issue evolution and macro-partisanship suggests that significant time periods often elapse before voters update their perceptions of parties’ policy positions. We report cross-national, time-series, analyses on the relationship between parties’ policy programmes and election outcomes in 25 postwar democracies, which suggest that parties’ policy promises exert lagged effects on their electoral support: namely, parties gain votes at the current election when they moderated their policies at the previous election. By contrast, we find only weak and inconsistent evidence that parties’ support responds to their current policy programmes. Our findings have important implications for spatial modeling and for studies on political representation. |
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| Word count: |
11112 |
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| Moderate Now Win Votes Later: The Electoral Consequences of Parties’ Policy Shifts in Twenty-Five Postwar Democracies James Adams Department of Political Science University of California at Davis Davis CA 95616 jfadams@ucdavis.edu Zeynep Somer - Topcu Department of Political Science University of California at Davis Davis CA 95616 zsomer@ucdavis.edu Prepared for presentation at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association Chicago IL August 30-September 2 2007. Both authors contributed equally to the paper. Moderate Now Win Votes Later: |
| R2 .036 .039 .045 .041 ** p ≤ .01 ; * p ≤ .05 two-tailed tests. Notes. For these analyses the dependent variable was the change in the log of the party’s vote share at the current election compared to the log of its vote share at previous election. See the text for definitions of the independent variables. 1 The Country Effects Model included country-specific intercepts (not shown). None of these intercepts were statistically significant relative to that for |
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