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Economic Interdependence and Alliance Reliability: How does International Trade Affect Alliance Commitments in Crises?

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Abstract:

This paper investigates economic interdependence and alliance reliability. I explain how international trade affects the violation of alliance commitments in crises. Trade has both an endogenous and exogenous nature. Trade flows are affected by security concerns, while trade generates domestic political cleavages that constrain governmental policy choices. I interpret trade sensitivity and vulnerability focusing on governmental incentives, the general interest and special interest models. With statistical methods, I examine whether trade affected by security concerns generates domestic political cleavages in the period 1816-1944 that, in turn, affect alliance violations. The results do not sufficiently answer the research question. However, the results do provide a very clear policy implication. A states vulnerability to trade decreases its rate of treaty violation. Controlling bilateral trade and establishing preferential trade agreements are helpful for constraining alliance commitment violations. Though there is a lack of economic data on trade for the period under examination, imputation techniques allow us to arrive at robust results. This paper opens up a new interesting research area on the interaction between trade and security.

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trade (219), allianc (174), polit (72), variabl (67), violat (64), power (64), intern (63), model (61), econom (59), commit (57), state (57), share (54), interdepend (50), effect (44), 1 (42), chang (40), depend (39), domest (37), polici (36), data (35), result (33),

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International Trade, Alliance Commitment Problem
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Kagotani, Koji. "Economic Interdependence and Alliance Reliability: How does International Trade Affect Alliance Commitments in Crises?" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hyatt Regency Chicago and the Sheraton Chicago Hotel and Towers, Chicago, IL, Aug 30, 2007 <Not Available>. 2009-05-27 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p210697_index.html>

APA Citation:

Kagotani, K. , 2007-08-30 "Economic Interdependence and Alliance Reliability: How does International Trade Affect Alliance Commitments in Crises?" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hyatt Regency Chicago and the Sheraton Chicago Hotel and Towers, Chicago, IL Online <PDF>. 2009-05-27 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p210697_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: This paper investigates economic interdependence and alliance reliability. I explain how international trade affects the violation of alliance commitments in crises. Trade has both an endogenous and exogenous nature. Trade flows are affected by security concerns, while trade generates domestic political cleavages that constrain governmental policy choices. I interpret trade sensitivity and vulnerability focusing on governmental incentives, the general interest and special interest models. With statistical methods, I examine whether trade affected by security concerns generates domestic political cleavages in the period 1816-1944 that, in turn, affect alliance violations. The results do not sufficiently answer the research question. However, the results do provide a very clear policy implication. A states vulnerability to trade decreases its rate of treaty violation. Controlling bilateral trade and establishing preferential trade agreements are helpful for constraining alliance commitment violations. Though there is a lack of economic data on trade for the period under examination, imputation techniques allow us to arrive at robust results. This paper opens up a new interesting research area on the interaction between trade and security.

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Associated Document Available American Political Science Association

Document Type: PDF
Page count: 32
Word count: 5761
Text sample:
APSA Paper Economic Interdependence and Alliance Reliability: How  does International Trade Affect Alliance Commitments in  Crises? * Koji Kagotani Department of Political Scinece  UCLA kagotani@ucla.edu Please do not cite without the author’s permission. Summary: This paper investigates economic interdependence and alliance reliability. I explain how international trade affects the violation of alliance commitments in crises. Trade has both an endogenous and exogenous nature. Trade flows are affected by security concerns while trade generates domestic political cleavages that constrain governmental policy choices. I interpret trade sensitivity and vulnerability focusing on governmental incentives the general interest and special interest models. With statistical methods I examine
University Press. Stein  Arthur A. 2003. “Trade and Conflict: Uncertainty  Strategic Signaling and Interstate  Disputes.” In  Economic Interdependence and International Conflict: New Perspectives   on an Enduring Debate  edited by Edward D. Mansfield and Brian M. Pollins  pp. 111­ 26. Tomz  Michael  Jason Wittenberg  and Gary King (2001). CLARIFY: Software for Interpreting   and Presenting Statistical Results. Version 2.0 Cambridge: Harvard University  June 1.  http://gking.harvard.edu Walt  Stephen M. 1987. The Origins of Alliances. Ithaca: Cornell University Press. 32


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