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Economic Interdependence and Alliance Reliability: How does International Trade Affect Alliance Commitments in Crises? |
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Abstract:
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This paper investigates economic interdependence and alliance reliability. I explain how international trade affects the violation of alliance commitments in crises. Trade has both an endogenous and exogenous nature. Trade flows are affected by security concerns, while trade generates domestic political cleavages that constrain governmental policy choices. I interpret trade sensitivity and vulnerability focusing on governmental incentives, the general interest and special interest models. With statistical methods, I examine whether trade affected by security concerns generates domestic political cleavages in the period 1816-1944 that, in turn, affect alliance violations. The results do not sufficiently answer the research question. However, the results do provide a very clear policy implication. A states vulnerability to trade decreases its rate of treaty violation. Controlling bilateral trade and establishing preferential trade agreements are helpful for constraining alliance commitment violations. Though there is a lack of economic data on trade for the period under examination, imputation techniques allow us to arrive at robust results. This paper opens up a new interesting research area on the interaction between trade and security. |
Most Common Document Word Stems:
trade (219), allianc (174), polit (72), variabl (67), violat (64), power (64), intern (63), model (61), econom (59), commit (57), state (57), share (54), interdepend (50), effect (44), 1 (42), chang (40), depend (39), domest (37), polici (36), data (35), result (33), |
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Association:
Name: American Political Science Association URL: http://www.apsanet.org
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Kagotani, Koji. "Economic Interdependence and Alliance Reliability: How does International Trade Affect Alliance Commitments in Crises?" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hyatt Regency Chicago and the Sheraton Chicago Hotel and Towers, Chicago, IL, Aug 30, 2007 <Not Available>. 2009-05-27 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p210697_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Kagotani, K. , 2007-08-30 "Economic Interdependence and Alliance Reliability: How does International Trade Affect Alliance Commitments in Crises?" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hyatt Regency Chicago and the Sheraton Chicago Hotel and Towers, Chicago, IL Online <PDF>. 2009-05-27 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p210697_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Abstract: This paper investigates economic interdependence and alliance reliability. I explain how international trade affects the violation of alliance commitments in crises. Trade has both an endogenous and exogenous nature. Trade flows are affected by security concerns, while trade generates domestic political cleavages that constrain governmental policy choices. I interpret trade sensitivity and vulnerability focusing on governmental incentives, the general interest and special interest models. With statistical methods, I examine whether trade affected by security concerns generates domestic political cleavages in the period 1816-1944 that, in turn, affect alliance violations. The results do not sufficiently answer the research question. However, the results do provide a very clear policy implication. A states vulnerability to trade decreases its rate of treaty violation. Controlling bilateral trade and establishing preferential trade agreements are helpful for constraining alliance commitment violations. Though there is a lack of economic data on trade for the period under examination, imputation techniques allow us to arrive at robust results. This paper opens up a new interesting research area on the interaction between trade and security. |
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| Document Type: |
PDF |
| Page count: |
32 |
| Word count: |
5761 |
| Text sample: |
| APSA Paper Economic Interdependence and Alliance Reliability: How does International Trade Affect Alliance Commitments in Crises? * Koji Kagotani Department of Political Scinece UCLA kagotani@ucla.edu Please do not cite without the author’s permission. Summary: This paper investigates economic interdependence and alliance reliability. I explain how international trade affects the violation of alliance commitments in crises. Trade has both an endogenous and exogenous nature. Trade flows are affected by security concerns while trade generates domestic political cleavages that constrain governmental policy choices. I interpret trade sensitivity and vulnerability focusing on governmental incentives the general interest and special interest models. With statistical methods I examine |
| University Press. Stein Arthur A. 2003. “Trade and Conflict: Uncertainty Strategic Signaling and Interstate Disputes.” In Economic Interdependence and International Conflict: New Perspectives on an Enduring Debate edited by Edward D. Mansfield and Brian M. Pollins pp. 111 26. Tomz Michael Jason Wittenberg and Gary King (2001). CLARIFY: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results. Version 2.0 Cambridge: Harvard University June 1. http://gking.harvard.edu Walt Stephen M. 1987. The Origins of Alliances. Ithaca: Cornell University Press. 32 |
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