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Presidential Saber Rattling and the Economy

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Abstract:

This study evaluates how presidential saber rattling affects U.S. economic behavior and performance. Theoretically, the study demonstrates that presidential rhetoric affects the risks that economic actors are willing to take, as well as the consequences of these resulting behaviors for U.S. economic performance. Using time series data running from January 1978 through January 2005, vector autoregression methods are used to show that increased presidential saber rattling produces increased perceptions of negative economic news, declining consumer confidence, lower personal consumption expenditures, less demand for money, and weaker economic growth. More broadly, the study demonstrates an important linkage between the president’s two most important roles: foreign and economic policy leadership. The president’s foreign policy pronouncements not only impact other nations, but also affect domestic economic outcomes. Therefore, good presidential leadership requires prudent foreign policy rhetoric, and careful consideration of the tradeoffs between foreign policy goals and economic outcomes.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

econom (224), presidenti (118), saber (94), rattl (94), presid (72), news (60), perform (60), variabl (57), consum (55), use (49), 0 (49), 5 (49), behavior (48), polici (48), rate (45), consumpt (45), 10 (45), interest (45), 15 (44), 1 (44), 20 (44),

Author's Keywords:

President, Presidential Rhetoric, Economic Behavior, Economic Performance, Vector Autoregression
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MLA Citation:

Wood, B.. "Presidential Saber Rattling and the Economy" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hyatt Regency Chicago and the Sheraton Chicago Hotel and Towers, Chicago, IL, Aug 30, 2007 <Not Available>. 2010-06-07 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p210896_index.html>

APA Citation:

Wood, B. D. , 2007-08-30 "Presidential Saber Rattling and the Economy" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hyatt Regency Chicago and the Sheraton Chicago Hotel and Towers, Chicago, IL Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2010-06-07 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p210896_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: This study evaluates how presidential saber rattling affects U.S. economic behavior and performance. Theoretically, the study demonstrates that presidential rhetoric affects the risks that economic actors are willing to take, as well as the consequences of these resulting behaviors for U.S. economic performance. Using time series data running from January 1978 through January 2005, vector autoregression methods are used to show that increased presidential saber rattling produces increased perceptions of negative economic news, declining consumer confidence, lower personal consumption expenditures, less demand for money, and weaker economic growth. More broadly, the study demonstrates an important linkage between the president’s two most important roles: foreign and economic policy leadership. The president’s foreign policy pronouncements not only impact other nations, but also affect domestic economic outcomes. Therefore, good presidential leadership requires prudent foreign policy rhetoric, and careful consideration of the tradeoffs between foreign policy goals and economic outcomes.

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Associated Document Available American Political Science Association

Document Type: application/pdf
Page count: 41
Word count: 10119
Text sample:
PRESIDENTIAL SABER RATTLING AND THE ECONOMY B. Dan Wood Department of Political Science Texas A&M University 4348 TAMUS College Station TX 77843-4348 Email: bdanwood@politics.tamu.edu B. Dan Wood is professor political science at Texas A&M University. Manuscript prepared for delivery at the 2007 American Political Science Association meeting Chicago IL. ABSTRACT This study evaluates how presidential saber rattling affects U.S. economic behavior and performance. Theoretically the study demonstrates that presidential rhetoric affects the risks that economic actors are willing to
of Expected U.S. Inflation." Journal of Economic Perspectives 13 (4): 125-44. Wood B. Dan. 2000. "Weak Theories and Parameter Instability: Using Flexible Least Squares to Take Time-Varying Relationships Seriously." American Journal of Political Science 44 (3): 603-18. ———. 2007. The Politics of Economic Leadership. Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press. Wood B. Dan and Jeffrey S. Peake. 1998. "The Dynamics of Foreign Policy Agenda Setting." American Political Science Review 92 (1): 173-84. Wood B. Dan Brandy M. Durham and Chris


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