(Page 19 of 37) - Between Balancing and Bandwagoning: A Game Theoretic Analysis of ASEAN's China Policy in the Post-Cold War Era authored by Chiou, Yi-hung. and Song, Young Hoon.

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Between Balancing and Bandwagoning: A Game Theoretic Analysis of ASEAN's China Policy in the Post-Cold War Era

Unformatted Document Text: In a nutshell, above discussion points out two points: (1) If both groups prioritize mutual cooperation over other options, the consensus among the ASEAN states can be easily reached as in Figure 3 and 4. If the two groups have the same strictly dominant strategy favoring cooperation, the consensus can definitely be accomplished. (2) If two groups have different priorities about mutual cooperation with regard to a certain proposal or issue, it will lead one group to compromise and seek for the second best payoff in an alternative proposal, if that group does not just reject the proposal. ASEAN-China Game Simulation This section attempts to apply the preceding models to explain the rationale of ASEAN’s policy toward China in the case of the South China Sea and the case of ACFTA agreement. The former case reveals the failure of ASEAN to take a collective hedging strategy; the latter indicates ASEAN’s success in taking an economic engagement (bandwagoning for profit) strategy. (1) The South China Sea Disputes Probably, the South China Sea dispute is the most noticeable flashpoint between China and ASEAN, even though now the tension between the two sides has greatly lessened. Nevertheless, this issue offers an appropriate case to examine ASEAN’s attitude toward China. Essentially, the South China Sea issue is not only a territorial dispute, but also is related to its potential huge oil resources and natural gas reserves. 13 Totally, five ASEAN states claim sovereignty over different areas in this region and both Taiwan and China claim to own the entire Spratly archipelago. China and Vietnam have several small scale military conflicts in 1974 and 1988. 14 China and 13 According to a moderate Chinese estimation, the potential oil resources of the Spratly and Paracel Islands could be as high as 105 billion barrels of oil. The whole region of the South China Sea could contain up to 213 billion barrels. See Rowan, Joshua P. 2005. The U.S.- Japan Security Alliance, ASEAN, and the South China Sea Dispute. Asian Survey 45 (3):414-436. 14 In 1988, China sank three Vietnamese vessels and caused about seventy deaths. 18

Authors: Chiou, Yi-hung. and Song, Young Hoon.

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In a nutshell, above discussion points out two points: (1) If both groups prioritize

mutual cooperation over other options, the consensus among the ASEAN states can be

easily reached as in Figure 3 and 4. If the two groups have the same strictly dominant

strategy favoring cooperation, the consensus can definitely be accomplished. (2) If

two groups have different priorities about mutual cooperation with regard to a certain

proposal or issue, it will lead one group to compromise and seek for the second best

payoff in an alternative proposal, if that group does not just reject the proposal.

ASEAN-China Game Simulation

This section attempts to apply the preceding models to explain the rationale of

ASEAN’s policy toward China in the case of the South China Sea and the case of

ACFTA agreement. The former case reveals the failure of ASEAN to take a collective

hedging strategy; the latter indicates ASEAN’s success in taking an economic

engagement (bandwagoning for profit) strategy.

(1)

The South China Sea Disputes

Probably, the South China Sea dispute is the most noticeable flashpoint between

China and ASEAN, even though now the tension between the two sides has greatly

lessened. Nevertheless, this issue offers an appropriate case to examine ASEAN’s

attitude toward China. Essentially, the South China Sea issue is not only a territorial

dispute, but also is related to its potential huge oil resources and natural gas

reserves.

Totally, five ASEAN states claim sovereignty over different areas in this

region and both Taiwan and China claim to own the entire Spratly archipelago. China

and Vietnam have several small scale military conflicts in 1974 and 1988.

China and

13

According to a moderate Chinese estimation, the potential oil resources of the Spratly and Paracel

Islands could be as high as 105 billion barrels of oil. The whole region of the South China Sea could
contain up to 213 billion barrels. See Rowan, Joshua P. 2005. The U.S.- Japan Security Alliance,
ASEAN, and the South China Sea Dispute. Asian Survey 45 (3):414-436.

14

In 1988, China sank three Vietnamese vessels and caused about seventy deaths.

18

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