 |
Between Balancing and Bandwagoning: A Game Theoretic Analysis of ASEAN's China Policy in the Post-Cold War Era
| |
| | Unformatted Document Text:
pressure from ASEAN to publicly discuss this issue at the multilateral meeting.
Figure 8. 1995 ASEAN’s Response
to the Philippine’s Proposal
Group A
A: Approve R: Reject
s
r
q
p
k
j
i
h
(1, 3, 0)
R
R
R
R
A
A
A
A
(1, 3)
(3, 1)
(2, 4*)
(4, 2)
Group B
R
A
R
A
ASEAN
China
(3, 1, 4)
(3, 1, 0) (1, 3, 4)
(2, 4, 1)
(2, 4, 4*)
(4, 2, 2)
(4, 2, 0)
R
A
China, as the third player, moves last and decides whether it was willing to
continue to attend the ARF meeting after obtaining ASEAN’s position on this issue.
Given that the ASEAN states agree with the Philippine’s proposal (node h), China has
to compromise its principles if choosing to continuingly participate in the ARF. In this
case, its payoff would be less than the option of refusing to attend the meeting (node p:
0 < node q: 2). By contrast, if ASEAN did not collectively take the Philippine’s side,
China would be willing to attend the meeting and its payoff would be higher than the
alternative (node r: 4 > node s: 1). The reason for this payoff arrangement is obvious.
China was willing to use the ARF as a channel to show its friendly and good-will
gesture toward Southeast Asian states, in order to defuse the “China threat,” and to
prevent any formation of anti-China coalition in this region. Nevertheless, if ASEAN
had adopted the Philippine’s proposal, China’s attendance at that meeting would
seriously contradict its previous principles. Once the Spratly issue had become the
topic for discussion in the ARF, the U.S. and Japan, so-called the outside regional
22
|
| | Authors: Chiou, Yi-hung. and Song, Young Hoon. |
|
| |
|
|
pressure from ASEAN to publicly discuss this issue at the multilateral meeting.
Figure 8. 1995 ASEAN’s Response
to the Philippine’s Proposal
Group A
A: Approve
R: Reject
s
r
q
p
k
j
i
h
(1, 3, 0)
R
R
R
R
A
A
A
A
(1, 3)
(3, 1)
(2, 4*)
(4, 2)
Group B
R
A
R
A
ASEAN
China
(3, 1, 4)
(3, 1, 0) (1, 3, 4)
(2, 4, 1)
(2, 4, 4*)
(4, 2, 2)
(4, 2, 0)
R
A
China, as the third player, moves last and decides whether it was willing to
continue to attend the ARF meeting after obtaining ASEAN’s position on this issue.
Given that the ASEAN states agree with the Philippine’s proposal (node h), China has
to compromise its principles if choosing to continuingly participate in the ARF. In this
case, its payoff would be less than the option of refusing to attend the meeting (node p:
0 < node q: 2). By contrast, if ASEAN did not collectively take the Philippine’s side,
China would be willing to attend the meeting and its payoff would be higher than the
alternative (node r: 4 > node s: 1). The reason for this payoff arrangement is obvious.
China was willing to use the ARF as a channel to show its friendly and good-will
gesture toward Southeast Asian states, in order to defuse the “China threat,” and to
prevent any formation of anti-China coalition in this region. Nevertheless, if ASEAN
had adopted the Philippine’s proposal, China’s attendance at that meeting would
seriously contradict its previous principles. Once the Spratly issue had become the
topic for discussion in the ARF, the U.S. and Japan, so-called the outside regional
22
|
|
 Convention | | Need a solution for abstract management? All Academic can help! Contact us today to find out how our system can help your annual meeting. | | Submission - Custom fields, multiple submission types, tracks, audio visual, multiple upload formats, automatic conversion to pdf. | | Review - Peer Review, Bulk reviewer assignment, bulk emails, ranking, z-score statistics, and multiple worksheets! | | Reports - Many standard and custom reports generated while you wait. Print programs with participant indexes, event grids, and more! | | Scheduling - Flexible and convenient grid scheduling within rooms and buildings. Conflict checking and advanced filtering. | | Communication - Bulk email tools to help your administrators send reminders and responses. Use form letters, a message center, and much more! | | Management - Search tools, duplicate people management, editing tools, submission transfers, many tools to manage a variety of conference management headaches! | | Click here for more information. |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
