6
services is not easy. As an approximation, the budget per capita is used. Communities
that spend more per capita will almost certainly be delivering a higher level of services
than those that spend less, so this variable should have a negative relationship with the
dependent variables.
Finally, some have noted a connection between state aid and override activity
(Kingsley 1998). During periods of declining state aid, more overrides tend to be
proposed. This is not surprising. From a market perspective, state aid can be viewed as a
subsidy. When a subsidy is reduced, consumers are faced with a choice between
increasing the amount they pay for a commodity or accepting reduced amounts of a
commodity. Assuming town residents are satisfied with existing levels of services, and
holding ability to pay constant, there would be strong pressures to resolve this choice by
increasing payments. So, not only is it likely that more overrides will be proposed when
state aid is low, but overrides should receive more support and be more likely to pass.
Thus, state aid as a percentage of budget should be negatively related to support and
passage.
2
Political Variables
The problem of agency loss is perhaps endemic to the representative process of
local governance. However, the extent of this loss will vary to some extent across
communities in systematic ways. For instance, governance in smaller communities may
exhibit more fidelity to voter preferences because of the interpersonal relationships
between town officials and residents. In larger communities, residents may feel more
acutely the sense that their government is out of touch or beholden to partial interests. A
simple relationship between community size and override passage has been noted in
Massachusetts (Cutler, Elmendorf, and Zeckhauser 1999; Kingsley 1998; Wallin 2004).
It is therefore hypothesized that population will be negatively related to override support
and passage.
3
Population data from the Department of Revenue are estimated between
Census periods, and were available only up to 2006. Values for 2007 were estimated
using a simple linear forecast based on the values from 2000-2005.
As noted above, demand for services may not be insatiable and limited only by
price. Many people believe the scope of government—local government included—
should be much smaller and fewer services should be offered, regardless of price.
Ideally, an analysis of this sort would be able to secure public opinion data in each town
to assess the prevalence of this attitude. Such ideal data, unfortunately, are not available.
However, Massachusetts requires voter registration for elections, so partisanship can
serve as an indicator of conservative views. The expectation is that overrides will do
worse when the Republican percentage of the population is higher.
Finally, the purpose of the override needs to be considered, because demand for
services is unlikely to be consistent across different services. Overrides designated for
broader purposes should enjoy greater support than those earmarked for purposes of
interest to only a subset of the population. Similarly, overrides for multiple purposes or
2
This is net state aid and includes education aid (Chapter 70) as well as “cherry sheet” aid and other forms
of disbursements from the state to towns.
3
Similarly, the form of local government may shape people’s perceptions of inefficiency, waste and sense
of agency loss. Communities with open town meetings might be more likely to support overrides than
those with city councils. As of this writing, the data to test this hypothesis have not been collected.
Convention