Leymon 10
guidelines may have inadvertently given power to prosecutors by allowing them to choose a sentence box
when charging a suspect. With this choice, they know, if convicted, what type and how long of a
sentence will result. In essence, the removal of possible disparity causing bias in one area of the criminal
justice system has increased the potential for bias in another. Whether prosecutors actually use this new
power to discriminate against any one group is difficult to ascertain. A few studies have found that race is
a factor in determining prosecution of violent and drug crimes, but not property or non-violent felony
cases (Pettit and Western, 2004; Walker et al., 2000). Research has indicated that the strongest predictor
of prosecution is the perceived likelihood of conviction and prior record (Albonetti, 1997). There is a
strong possibility, though, that these findings may misrepresent the true effects of race. There is a
particular concern with the effect of prior record; studies show that minorities, due to a number of factors,
are more likely to plead guilty to a relatively small minor offense, often a drug crime, which establishes a
criminal record. This record then works against the offender when charged with another offense (Walker
et al., 2000). This is confounded further by the possibility that “fixed” sentencing reforms may actually
enhance this disparity. A basic premise is to place a large portion of the criteria for sentencing on prior
record. In a number of jurisdictions, a sentence for a second offense for some crimes is three to five times
as high as the first offense (Marbley and Ferguson, 2005; Shane-DuBow, 1998).
HYPOTHESES
Hypothesis 1: States implementing “fixed” sentencing reforms will have greater increases in
the rates of imprisonment for African-Americans than states that have not implemented
reforms.
Hypothesis 2: States implementing “fixed” sentencing reforms will have greater increases in
the rates of imprisonment for whites than states that have not implemented reforms.
Hypothesis 3: States implementing “fixed” sentencing reforms will have greater increases in
the rates of imprisonment for Hispanics than states that have not implemented reforms.
These hypotheses suggest that each of these groups face greater increases in imprisonment rates in
states with guidelines. While some research indicates that the racial disparity in prison populations has
Convention