Leymon 20
are incarcerated at higher rates
20
; if therefore, voluntary guidelines resulted in a 10 percent increase in
imprisonment rates for each racial group, the increase in the African American rates would be greater
than for the white rates and the coefficient associated with voluntary guidelines in the African American
equation would be greater than for the coefficient in the analysis of the white imprisonment rates.
ANALYSIS OF THE RACIAL DISPARITY IN IMPRISONMENT RATES
Based on previous research, it was hypothesized (Hypothesis 4) that sentencing guidelines,
presumptive sentencing, and determinate would have a greater effect on black imprisonment rates than on
white imprisonment rates, increasing imprisonment more for African Americans than whites (Engen,
Gainey, Crutchfield, and Weis, 2003; Arvantis and Asher, 1998; Gorton and Boies, 1999). It was also
hypothesized that the effects of guidelines on the Hispanic imprisonment rates would be greater than on
the white incarceration rates (Hypothesis 5). To facilitate the testing of Hypothesis 4 and Hypothesis 5, a
ratio of the black imprisonment rate to the white imprisonment rate and a ratio of Hispanic imprisonment
rate to the white imprisonment rate were constructed. These variables were regressed on the logarithmic
growth curves of the “fixed” sentencing reforms, as well as percent African American, and percent
Hispanic in models 1 and 2 and the full models in for each dependent variable in models 3 and 4 (not
displayed or discussed). Again, it should be noted that these additional controls are not disaggregated by
race. The results for both types of sentencing guidelines were consistent in analyses that included these
additional controls and analyses that did not.
The results revealed that both guideline types were a significant predictor, increasing the ratio of
black to white imprisonment and Hispanic to white imprisonment (see Table 2). The results support
Hypothesis 4 and 5 that both presumptive and voluntary sentencing guidelines have a greater effect on the
black and Hispanic imprisonment rates than the white rates. While both presumptive sentencing and
determinate sentencing were not significant for the ratio of black imprisonment to white imprisonment,
presumptive sentencing was significant for the ratio of Hispanic to white imprisonment while again
determinate sentencing was not significant. These findings are striking, indicating that sentencing
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The mean incarceration rate for African Americans over the period of study is 8.66 per 1000; the average Hispanic rate
is 2.44 per 1000, while the white mean rate is 1.43.
Convention