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guidelines and presumptive sentencing for Hispanics increase imprisonment rates proportionately more
for minorities than they do for whites. The finding is inconsistent with arguments put forth by some
public policy makers (Griset, 1995).
Table 2 About Here
DISCUSSION
Previous research indicates that guidelines have increased incarceration rates in a number of states
(Albonetti, 1997; Dalessio, 1995; Frase, 2005: 1995). The results of this analysis indicate that such
increases are associated with both presumptive and voluntary guidelines on an aggregate state level across
all 50 states for the black, Hispanic and white imprisonment rates. Additionally, it was found that
guidelines are positively associated with the ratio of black to white imprisonment and the ratio of
Hispanic to white imprisonment. Notably, the strong results of the effects of the introduction of “fixed”
sentencing reforms occur in an analysis that includes fixed effects for states. Such models examine
changes over time controlling for state-level characteristics that are constant over time. This study adds
to the body of research in the field of sentencing reforms by examining the effects on state level
imprisonment rates across all fifty states over an extended period of time. The results are more
generalizable than much of the earlier research and suggest a number of important considerations for
future research. In addition, the logarithmic growth curve measure for the effects of guidelines on build
up of imprisonment rates is a better indicator of the effects of guidelines on imprisonment rates than
measures used in previous studies.
Consistent with theories of penal social control, the finding that the violent crime rate is significantly
associated with incarceration rates is not surprising. This is true whether or not the state has guidelines of
any sort. This study has shown that states with the highest violent crime rates have the highest
imprisonment rates (controlling for other variables), supporting the arguments by Clarke (1998) and
others (Jacobs et al., 2005; Kempt-Leonard and Sample, 2001; Messner et al., 2005) that violence and a
violent subculture are strong predictors of imprisonment rates.
Convention