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Association: Name: ISA's 49th ANNUAL CONVENTION, BRIDGING MULTIPLE DIVIDES URL: http://www.isanet.org
Citation: URL: http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p250904_index.html Direct Link: HTML Code:

"Soldiers against Governments: Predicting Coups d'état in the Third Wave of Democratization" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the ISA's 49th ANNUAL CONVENTION, BRIDGING MULTIPLE DIVIDES, Hilton San Francisco, SAN FRANCISCO, CA, USA, Mar 26, 2008 <Not Available>. 2010-01-24 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p250904_index.html>

, 2008-03-26 "Soldiers against Governments: Predicting Coups d'état in the Third Wave of Democratization" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the ISA's 49th ANNUAL CONVENTION, BRIDGING MULTIPLE DIVIDES, Hilton San Francisco, SAN FRANCISCO, CA, USA <Not Available>. 2010-01-24 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p250904_index.html

Publication Type: Poster Abstract: In the evening of September 19, 2006, the Thai military ousted the democratically elected Thaksin government, thereby ending one of the most stable emerging democracies in Southeast Asia. Thailand’s abrupt end of democracy through a coup d’état, frequent coup attempts in the Philippines, the 1992 and 2002 coup attempts in Venezuela, and a successful 1999 Pakistani coup remind us that unconstitutional overthrows of government by the military remains a realistic possibility for emerging democracies in spite of the global democratization wave. In fact, coup d’état remains one of the most common ways of ousting governments in developing countries.When do soldiers act against their own governments? Past research has revealed that social instabilities, economic performance, and the level of socioeconomic development are the primary predictors of the incidences of coups. Using the event history method, we will first show that a dramatic cut in military spending raises the risk of a coup d’état in a country with traditionally high military expenditures. Second, we contend that the impact of social instabilities and economic performance are conditioned by domestic political institutions. We argue that the risk of a military coup rises sharply under a non-democratic regime with social and economic deteriorations. In a democratic regime, however, a parliament-supported government can survive these adverse circumstances while socioeconomic deteriorations significantly raises the risk of a coup d’état against a government without parliamentary support. We test our arguments using a cross-national dataset that covers more than 190 countries from 1975 to 2004.

Black Republicans…Black Politics? Racial Identification and Republican Partisanship among African Americans

Intra-racial Differences in an Increasingly Inter-racial World: Native-born Black American and African and Afro-Caribbean Interests in Government and Participation in the U.S.