Author's Keywords: early warning, conflict prevention, cognitive biases, heuristics	Convention Submission, Review, and Scheduling! All Academic Convention can help with all of your abstract management needs and many more. Contact us today for a quote! Submission - Custom fields, multiple submission types, tracks, audio visual, multiple upload formats, automatic conversion to pdf. Review - Peer Review, Bulk reviewer assignment, bulk emails, ranking, z-score statistics, and multiple worksheets! Reports - Many standard and custom reports generated while you wait. Print programs with participant indexes, event grids, and more! Scheduling - Flexible and convenient grid scheduling within rooms and buildings. Conflict checking and advanced filtering. Communication - Bulk email tools to help your administrators send reminders and responses. Use form letters, a message center, and much more! Management - Search tools, duplicate people management, editing tools, submission transfers, many tools to manage a variety of conference management headaches! Click here for more information.
Association: Name: ISA's 49th ANNUAL CONVENTION, BRIDGING MULTIPLE DIVIDES URL: http://www.isanet.org
Citation: URL: http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p253498_index.html Direct Link: HTML Code:

Woocher, Lawrence. "The Effects of Cognitive Biases on Early Warning" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the ISA's 49th ANNUAL CONVENTION, BRIDGING MULTIPLE DIVIDES, Hilton San Francisco, SAN FRANCISCO, CA, USA, Mar 26, 2008 <Not Available>. 2010-01-24 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p253498_index.html>

Woocher, L. , 2008-03-26 "The Effects of Cognitive Biases on Early Warning" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the ISA's 49th ANNUAL CONVENTION, BRIDGING MULTIPLE DIVIDES, Hilton San Francisco, SAN FRANCISCO, CA, USA Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2010-01-24 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p253498_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Abstract: This paper reviews selected concepts and empirical evidence from psychology and cognitive science about limitations in the way that individuals process information and make decisions, and applies these to early warning and response. Cognitive biases can exert influence on early warning by affecting the warning analyst’s judgments and/or the policymaker’s evaluation of warnings and decision about a response. Taken together, literature on cognitive biases suggests that warning analysis will tend to overestimate risks and policymakers will tend to resist calls for preventive action, preferring to risk a greater loss in the future rather than accept a certain one now. The paper then discusses possible strategies to minimize and manage the negative effects of cognitive biases on early warning. These strategies have yet to prove fully their ability to address fundamental cognitive biases in applied settings. The author concludes that additional research into the effectiveness of these strategies is important for designing and implementing more effective early warning systems.

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