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The Effects of Cognitive Biases on Early Warning

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Abstract:

This paper reviews selected concepts and empirical evidence from psychology and cognitive science about limitations in the way that individuals process information and make decisions, and applies these to early warning and response. Cognitive biases can exert influence on early warning by affecting the warning analysts judgments and/or the policymakers evaluation of warnings and decision about a response. Taken together, literature on cognitive biases suggests that warning analysis will tend to overestimate risks and policymakers will tend to resist calls for preventive action, preferring to risk a greater loss in the future rather than accept a certain one now. The paper then discusses possible strategies to minimize and manage the negative effects of cognitive biases on early warning. These strategies have yet to prove fully their ability to address fundamental cognitive biases in applied settings. The author concludes that additional research into the effectiveness of these strategies is important for designing and implementing more effective early warning systems.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

warn (111), bias (102), cognit (64), earli (60), analyst (57), event (50), policymak (38), judgment (37), risk (37), peopl (34), respons (31), process (31), one (29), loss (29), effect (28), action (27), decis (26), make (25), kahneman (25), analysi (24), inform (24),

Author's Keywords:

early warning, conflict prevention, cognitive biases, heuristics
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Name: ISA's 49th ANNUAL CONVENTION, BRIDGING MULTIPLE DIVIDES
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http://www.isanet.org


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URL: http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p253498_index.html
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MLA Citation:

Woocher, Lawrence. "The Effects of Cognitive Biases on Early Warning" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the ISA's 49th ANNUAL CONVENTION, BRIDGING MULTIPLE DIVIDES, Hilton San Francisco, SAN FRANCISCO, CA, USA, Mar 26, 2008 <Not Available>. 2009-05-23 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p253498_index.html>

APA Citation:

Woocher, L. , 2008-03-26 "The Effects of Cognitive Biases on Early Warning" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the ISA's 49th ANNUAL CONVENTION, BRIDGING MULTIPLE DIVIDES, Hilton San Francisco, SAN FRANCISCO, CA, USA Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2009-05-23 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p253498_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: This paper reviews selected concepts and empirical evidence from psychology and cognitive science about limitations in the way that individuals process information and make decisions, and applies these to early warning and response. Cognitive biases can exert influence on early warning by affecting the warning analysts judgments and/or the policymakers evaluation of warnings and decision about a response. Taken together, literature on cognitive biases suggests that warning analysis will tend to overestimate risks and policymakers will tend to resist calls for preventive action, preferring to risk a greater loss in the future rather than accept a certain one now. The paper then discusses possible strategies to minimize and manage the negative effects of cognitive biases on early warning. These strategies have yet to prove fully their ability to address fundamental cognitive biases in applied settings. The author concludes that additional research into the effectiveness of these strategies is important for designing and implementing more effective early warning systems.

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Abstract Only Political Research Online

Document Type: application/pdf
Page count: 29
Word count: 7675
Text sample:
The Effects of Cognitive Biases on Early Warning Lawrence Woocher Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention United States Institute of Peace lwoocher@usip.org Presented at the International Studies Association Annual Convention March 29 2008 Abstract This paper reviews selected concepts and empirical evidence from psychology and cognitive science about limitations in the way that individuals process information and make decisions and applies these to early warning and response. Cognitive biases can exert influence on early warning by affecting the warning
and Rational (New York: John Wiley & Sons 1957). Slovic Paul. “If I look at the Mass I will Never Act: Psychic Numbing and Genocide ” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (February 16 2007). Tetlock Philip E. Expert Political Judgment (Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press 2005). Tversky Amos and Daniel Kahneman. “Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability ” in D. Kahneman P. Slovic and A. Tversky (Eds.)


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