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The Determinants of Strategic Voting in the 2002 and 2006 Presidential Elections in Brazil

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Abstract:

Taking advantage of panel survey data, I pursue two goals in this paper. First I present an assessment of the amount of strategic voting found in the last two presidential elections in Brazil. Second, I develop an analysis of its causes.

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Name: MPSA Annual National Conference
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http://www.indiana.edu/~mpsa/


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MLA Citation:

Rodriguez-Zepeda, Juan. "The Determinants of Strategic Voting in the 2002 and 2006 Presidential Elections in Brazil" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the MPSA Annual National Conference, Palmer House Hotel, Hilton, Chicago, IL, Apr 03, 2008 <Not Available>. 2009-05-23 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p267170_index.html>

APA Citation:

Rodriguez-Zepeda, J. A. , 2008-04-03 "The Determinants of Strategic Voting in the 2002 and 2006 Presidential Elections in Brazil" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the MPSA Annual National Conference, Palmer House Hotel, Hilton, Chicago, IL Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2009-05-23 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p267170_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Taking advantage of panel survey data, I pursue two goals in this paper. First I present an assessment of the amount of strategic voting found in the last two presidential elections in Brazil. Second, I develop an analysis of its causes.

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Associated Document Available MPSA Annual National Conference
Associated Document Available Political Research Online

Document Type: application/pdf
Page count: 39
Word count: 8020
Text sample:
The Determinants of Strategic Voting in the 2002 and 2006 Presidential Elections in Brazil Juan Antonio Rodriguez-Zepeda University of Pittsburgh Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association. Chicago IL. April 3 2008. I thank Barry Ames for his helpful comments. Introduction Utilizing the panel data collected by Barry Ames Andy Baker and Lucio Renno I address two questions regarding the voting behavior of Brazilians. First I ask whether voters faced the incentives and had
-1.513 0.471 0.001 N 899 Pseudo Rsq 0.146 Correctly Predicted 0.848 37 Figure 4. Predicted Probabilities of Strategic Voting by Perceived Closeness of Election Predicted Probability of Strategic Voting .4 .3 (by perceived closeness of election) Probability .2 .1 0 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 Normalized Thermometer (u2) Result Close Result Not Close 38


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