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The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Anchors: Firm-Level Evidence |
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Abstract:
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Analyses of monetary policy posit that exchange-rate pegs, inflation targets, and central bank independence discipline monetary policy decision-making and serve as anchors for private sector inflation expectations. Yet there are few direct empirical tests of these arguments. We offer cross-national, micro-level evidence on the effectiveness of monetary anchors in controlling private sector inflation expectations. Using firm-level data from the World Bank’s World Business Environment Survey (81 countries, ~10,000 firms), we find that fixed exchange rate regimes (de facto and de jure) reduce firm owners’ concerns about inflation, improve their assessments of economic policy predictability, and increase their regard for the quality of the central bank. By contrast, central bank independence (de facto and de jure) and inflation targets are unrelated to firm owners' inflation concerns, perceptions of policy predictability, and ratings of central bank quality. Overall, our results suggest that private sector perceptions are only sensitive to the most transparent, constraining, and costly of monetary anchors: exchange rate pegs. |
Most Common Document Word Stems:
inflat (239), 0 (234), 1 (165), 2 (127), firm (123), central (88), bank (87), monetari (81), countri (80), rate (76), polici (75), peg (71), target (70), cbi (62), exchang (58), institut (57), regim (53), 1999 (53), respons (48), 4 (47), 3 (46), |
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Inflation expectations, central bank independence, inflation targeting, fixed exchange rate regime |
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Association:
Name: APSA 2008 Annual Meeting URL: http://www.apsanet.org
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Broz, Lawrence. and Plouffe, Michael. "The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Anchors: Firm-Level Evidence" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the APSA 2008 Annual Meeting, Hynes Convention Center, Boston, Massachusetts, Aug 28, 2008 <Not Available>. 2009-05-23 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p278816_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Broz, L. and Plouffe, M. , 2008-08-28 "The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Anchors: Firm-Level Evidence" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the APSA 2008 Annual Meeting, Hynes Convention Center, Boston, Massachusetts Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2009-05-23 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p278816_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Abstract: Analyses of monetary policy posit that exchange-rate pegs, inflation targets, and central bank independence discipline monetary policy decision-making and serve as anchors for private sector inflation expectations. Yet there are few direct empirical tests of these arguments. We offer cross-national, micro-level evidence on the effectiveness of monetary anchors in controlling private sector inflation expectations. Using firm-level data from the World Bank’s World Business Environment Survey (81 countries, ~10,000 firms), we find that fixed exchange rate regimes (de facto and de jure) reduce firm owners’ concerns about inflation, improve their assessments of economic policy predictability, and increase their regard for the quality of the central bank. By contrast, central bank independence (de facto and de jure) and inflation targets are unrelated to firm owners' inflation concerns, perceptions of policy predictability, and ratings of central bank quality. Overall, our results suggest that private sector perceptions are only sensitive to the most transparent, constraining, and costly of monetary anchors: exchange rate pegs. |
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application/pdf |
| Page count: |
44 |
| Word count: |
11386 |
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| The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Anchors: Firm-Level Evidence J. Lawrence Broz Department of Political Science University of California San Diego 9500 Gilman Dr. M/C 0521 La Jolla CA 92093-0521 email: jlbroz@ucsd.edu and Michael Plouffe Department of Political Science University of California San Diego 9500 Gilman Dr. M/C 0521 La Jolla CA 92093-0521 email: mplouffe@ucsd.edu First Draft: August 4 2008 Prepared for the 2008 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association August 28-31 2008. Copyright by the American Political |
| survey of central bankers. CBI (TURNOVER) Ghosh Gulde and Wolf 2002 de facto CBI: CB governor turnover rate per five years. IT (MISHKIN) Mishkin and Schmidt-Hebbel Binary indicator; 1 if country 2002 was an inflation targeter prior to 1999. IT (M&S) Mahadeva and Sterne 2002 "Inflation focus" is a weighted index of inflation targeting from a 1998 survey of central bankers. 43 |
Similar Titles:
Exchange Rates and the Private Sector. How Interest Group Vulnerabilities Influence Exchange Rate Policy Choices
Exchange Rate Regimes and Independent Central Banks: A Correlated Choice of Imperfectly Credible Institutions
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