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Association: Name: Southern Political Science Association URL: http://www.spsa.net
Citation: URL: http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p282993_index.html Direct Link: HTML Code:

Powell, Jonathan. "“Explaining the Occurrence and Outcome of Coups d’état”" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Hotel Intercontinental, New Orleans, LA, Jan 07, 2009 <Not Available>. 2010-01-23 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p282993_index.html>

Powell, J. M. , 2009-01-07 "“Explaining the Occurrence and Outcome of Coups d’état”" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Hotel Intercontinental, New Orleans, LA Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2010-01-23 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p282993_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Abstract: The coup d’ état is a phenomenon that has long been studied by scholars, but little consensus has arisen regarding which factors lead elites to overthrow the incumbent. I argue these inconsistencies are due to two shortcomings. First, variables related to the military are largely absent from previous analyses, despite the vast majority of coups being undertaken by the armed forces. Second, most studies have either relied solely on successful coups or have aggregated failed and successful attempts as one category. In the former case, the data only allows us to draw conclusions regarding when a successful coup will occur. In the case of the latter, we can make inferences regarding when elites will make the decision to attempt a coup, but we cannot draw conclusions regarding which factors determine whether or not the attempt will succeed. While some factors may explain when a coup is more likely to be attempted, those factors may be inadequate in explaining whether or not the attempt will succeed. I argue that while socio-economic, political, and military factors can impact the decision to intervene, success will largely be determined by factors related to the military. In order to properly assess both aspects of coup activity, the theory is tested with a selection model incorporating global coup data from 1960-2007.

Political Economy and 'Quality of Life' in the early Twenty-First Century: Economic versus Political Factors

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