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Association: Name: Southern Political Science Association URL: http://www.spsa.net
Citation: URL: http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p287891_index.html Direct Link: HTML Code:

Kappe, Roland. "Wheat from chaff: A sensitivity analysis of determinants of social expenditure levels in OECD countries" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Hotel Intercontinental, New Orleans, LA, Jan 07, 2009 <Not Available>. 2009-11-04 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p287891_index.html>

Kappe, R. , 2009-01-07 "Wheat from chaff: A sensitivity analysis of determinants of social expenditure levels in OECD countries" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Hotel Intercontinental, New Orleans, LA Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2009-11-04 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p287891_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Review Method: Peer Reviewed Abstract: The empirical study of the welfare state suffers from non-cumulative findings. Empirically, dozens of factors have been shown to be related to the level of social expenditure in advanced industrialized democracies. Yet not all independent variables ever proposed can be relevant. In other words, the “true” model is unknown and any given study necessarily only uses a selected subset of all potentially relevant factors. A multitude of empirically confirmed yet contradictory claims is the result and discriminating between competing hypotheses becomes difficult. The aim of this paper is to help winnow wheat from chaff and separate the robust determinants from those factors that are fragile to changes in model specification. A global sensitivity analysis is used to assess robustness. For this purpose, fifty-five variables that have previously been found to explain the share of social expenditure in the GDP are derived from the literature. For each of these variables, a large number of models - covering all (or many) possible combinations of the other independent variables - are estimated. Averaging the individual estimates over all models then yields a mean estimate of the coefficient and a probabilistic assessment of robustness for each of these variables. The results show that many variables suggested in the previous literature are indeed rather fragile candidates. Yet some central claims regarding social change, institutions and partisan politics prove robust and find support regardless of model specification.

The Influence of Policy Ideas and Non-State Actors in Economic Policy Change - An Analysis of the Peruvian Case of Neoliberal Economic Reform

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