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Association: Name: Midwest Political Science Association 67th Annual National Conference URL: http://www.indiana.edu/~mpsa/
Citation: URL: http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p360983_index.html Direct Link: HTML Code:

Brandt, Patrick. "Empirical Regime Specific Models of International, Inter-group Conflict, and Politics" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association 67th Annual National Conference, The Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL, Apr 02, 2009 <Not Available>. 2009-11-10 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p360983_index.html>

Brandt, P. T. , 2009-04-02 "Empirical Regime Specific Models of International, Inter-group Conflict, and Politics" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association 67th Annual National Conference, The Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2009-11-10 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p360983_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Review Method: Peer Reviewed Abstract: Models including Markov or structural break processes have become common for analysis and forecasting outside of political science. This paper proposes how these methods can be used in political science and political economy. The paper introduces a general framework for these methods for political analysis. Next, it advances how these methods can improve dynamic and time series analysis in the social sciences. A set of positive and negative examples are presented (i.e., those that do and do not benefit from the framework) are presented. These examples include both applications to the political economy of election timing in endogenously timed elections (like those in most of the EU) as well as cycles and breaks in international conflicts (like those between the Israelis and Palestinians over the last 30+ years). Examples include applications of Markov-switching, changepoint, and standard dynamic models. A set of conditions are presented for adopting the various modeling proposals that are presented.

Advances in Bayesian Time Series Modeling and the Study of Politics: Theory Testing, Forecasting and Policy Analysis

Hidden Markov Model for Time Series Cross Sectional Data

Dirichlet Process Priors for Bayesian Models of Political Science Data