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A Different Nominee? The Role of the Rules in the 2008 Primaries

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Abstract:

In this paper, I ask whether voting procedures affected outcomes in the 2008 primaries. Social choice theorists have demonstrated that depending on the preference structure of voters, various procedures may lead to different results. However, most scholars illustrate this feature of elections by creating hypothetical preference structures and simulating the results of various voting procedures. In an investigation of the role of the delegate allocation rules in the 2008 Democratic and Republican primaries, I use actual votes cast to determine the delegate counts of the candidates under various allocation procedures. I find that while Obama was triumphant under proportional representation and won more contests and more total votes than Clinton, she would have been leading in delegates under a winner-take-all system. When Romney withdrew from the nomination, he would have been leading in delegates if the Republican Party had used proportional representation even though McCain had won more states, more votes overall, and was leading under the winner-take-all system. My analysis shows that the rules structuring the parties’ delegate allocation procedures influenced which candidates became the presidential candidates.

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deleg (201), candid (133), parti (129), state (98), system (91), use (89), vote (89), alloc (83), winner (80), take (79), republican (79), democrat (74), proport (73), rule (72), would (69), method (62), winner-take-al (62), primari (59), prefer (58), represent (58), di (57),
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Name: Midwest Political Science Association 67th Annual National Conference
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http://www.indiana.edu/~mpsa/


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MLA Citation:

Dwyer, Caitlin. "A Different Nominee? The Role of the Rules in the 2008 Primaries" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association 67th Annual National Conference, The Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL, Apr 02, 2009 <Not Available>. 2009-11-10 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p362858_index.html>

APA Citation:

Dwyer, C. E. , 2009-04-02 "A Different Nominee? The Role of the Rules in the 2008 Primaries" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association 67th Annual National Conference, The Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2009-11-10 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p362858_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: In this paper, I ask whether voting procedures affected outcomes in the 2008 primaries. Social choice theorists have demonstrated that depending on the preference structure of voters, various procedures may lead to different results. However, most scholars illustrate this feature of elections by creating hypothetical preference structures and simulating the results of various voting procedures. In an investigation of the role of the delegate allocation rules in the 2008 Democratic and Republican primaries, I use actual votes cast to determine the delegate counts of the candidates under various allocation procedures. I find that while Obama was triumphant under proportional representation and won more contests and more total votes than Clinton, she would have been leading in delegates under a winner-take-all system. When Romney withdrew from the nomination, he would have been leading in delegates if the Republican Party had used proportional representation even though McCain had won more states, more votes overall, and was leading under the winner-take-all system. My analysis shows that the rules structuring the parties’ delegate allocation procedures influenced which candidates became the presidential candidates.

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Associated Document Available Political Research Online
Associated Document Available Midwest Political Science Association 67th Annual National Conference

Document Type: application/pdf
Page count: 35
Word count: 9702
Text sample:
A Different Nominee? The Role of the Rules in the 2008 Primaries1 Caitlin E. Dwyer dwyer077@umn.edu Department of Political Science University of Minnesota March 29 2009 1I am thankful for the helpful comments and suggestions of Jason Roberts Sarah Treul and Eve Ringsmuth. I also gratefully acknowledge the support of the Political Psychology Minor at the University of Minnesota. This paper was prepared for the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association April 2 - 5 2009 Chicago
Political Science Review 74:432 – 446. Riker William H. 1982. Liberalism Against Populism. W.H. Freeman and Company. Roberts Jason M. and Steven S. Smith. 2007. “The Evolution of Agenda Setting Institu- tions in Congress: Path Dependency in House and Senate Institutional Development.” In Process Party and Policy Making: Further New Perspectives on the History of Congress ( David Brady and Mathew McCubbins editors) Stanford University Press. Scala Dante J. 2003. Stormy Weather: The New Hampshire Primary and Presidential Politics.


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