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Isolation and Evaluation of Three Mechanisms for Mediation: Information Transmission, Side Payments, and Audience Costs

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Abstract:

Models of mediation condition their results upon the assumption that informational asymmetries are relieved through a mediator. However, there exists no mechanism through which this relief occurs. Bargaining models show that parties in conflict have the incentive to bluff. The addition of a mediator does not alter this incentive: disputants still prefer to exaggerate their demands, strength, or resolve to obtain their best outcome. I use a series of models, each isolating one of three mechanisms -- information transmission, side payments, and audience costs -- to identify whether and how each mechanism can lead to success. I show that the confidentiality of mediation behind closed doors allows leaders to avoid audience costs that would be paid if diplomatic concessions were made publicly. I use a split population model in which the latent dimension is audience costs on conflicts from 1950-2000 using the Archigos and Berkovitch data. I show that a selection process exists in which the domestic political situation makes certain conflicts amenable to mediation, and within those, certain factors enhance the likelihood of success. I also draw support from interviews regarding the mediation of the Peru-Ecuador border conflict.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

b (255), mediat (255), 1 (255), w (236), m (196), p (195), 2 (176), cb (157), cost (154), ca (145), war (128), o (119), audienc (107), state (106), er (97), model (96), con (94), success (88), ict (84), accept (76), agreement (69),

Author's Keywords:

audience costs, mediation, conflict, peacemaking, information transmission, side payments, split population
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Association:
Name: Midwest Political Science Association 67th Annual National Conference
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http://www.indiana.edu/~mpsa/


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MLA Citation:

Ramirez, Shawn. "Isolation and Evaluation of Three Mechanisms for Mediation: Information Transmission, Side Payments, and Audience Costs" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association 67th Annual National Conference, The Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL, Apr 02, 2009 <Not Available>. 2009-11-10 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p362958_index.html>

APA Citation:

Ramirez, S. L. , 2009-04-02 "Isolation and Evaluation of Three Mechanisms for Mediation: Information Transmission, Side Payments, and Audience Costs" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association 67th Annual National Conference, The Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2009-11-10 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p362958_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Models of mediation condition their results upon the assumption that informational asymmetries are relieved through a mediator. However, there exists no mechanism through which this relief occurs. Bargaining models show that parties in conflict have the incentive to bluff. The addition of a mediator does not alter this incentive: disputants still prefer to exaggerate their demands, strength, or resolve to obtain their best outcome. I use a series of models, each isolating one of three mechanisms -- information transmission, side payments, and audience costs -- to identify whether and how each mechanism can lead to success. I show that the confidentiality of mediation behind closed doors allows leaders to avoid audience costs that would be paid if diplomatic concessions were made publicly. I use a split population model in which the latent dimension is audience costs on conflicts from 1950-2000 using the Archigos and Berkovitch data. I show that a selection process exists in which the domestic political situation makes certain conflicts amenable to mediation, and within those, certain factors enhance the likelihood of success. I also draw support from interviews regarding the mediation of the Peru-Ecuador border conflict.

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Associated Document Available Midwest Political Science Association 67th Annual National Conference

Document Type: application/pdf
Page count: 59
Word count: 18253
Text sample:
Isolation and Evaluation of Three Mechanisms for Mediation: Information Transmission Side Payments and Audience Costs Shawn Ling Ramirez March 13 2009 Contents 1 Introduction 3 2 Peacemaking and the Specter of Audience Costs 6 3 Models of Mediation 9 3.1 Null Model of Mediation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 3.2 Information Transmission: A Shuttle
Using Split-Population Survival Time Models.” Journal of Econometrics 40 (1989): 141-159. 58 [24] Schultz Kenneth. “Domestic Opposition and Signaling in International Crises.” Amer- ican Political Science Review 92 1998: 829-844. [25] Schultz Kenneth. ”Looking for Audience Costs.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 45 (1) (2001): 32. [26] Schultz Kenneth. Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy New York: Cambridge Univer- sity Press. 2001. [27] Smith Alastair. ”Diversionary Foreign Policy in Democratic Systems.” International Studies Quarterly (1996) 40 133-153. [28] Wright Quincy. A Study


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