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How Does Vote By Mail Affect Voters? A natural experiment examining individual-level turnout

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Abstract:

Does vote by mail increase turnout? Scholars (Kousser and Mullin 2007) point out that sample selection problems in the early work on vote by mail make extension of results problematic. In this study we take advantage of a natural experiment following the same voters to ascertain the individual-level effects on turnout when voters are assigned to mandatory mail-ballot precincts. We hypothesize that mandatory vote by mail lowers the cost of voting and increases turnout. This project analyzed panel data of validated individual voter records across four elections in California from 2006 to 2008 while controlling for contextual factors. Using weighted least squares logit models for analysis of the validated records of all mail ballot precinct voters in five counties we can more accurately estimate the impact of vote by mail across voter stratifications and populations. Individual level work using panel data has not been done since Berinsky et al (2001) did using only Oregon data from 1994-1996; furthermore, in that study the sample n was only 811 voters; this proposal analyzed the behavior of more than 50,000 voters.

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voter (124), mail (110), elect (99), vote (95), ballot (49), turnout (39), counti (31), mandatori (27), precinct (27), 2008 (25), data (25), 2006 (24), 1 (23), individu (22), california (22), june (20), san (19), 3 (19), time (19), polit (18), effect (17),
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Name: Midwest Political Science Association 67th Annual National Conference
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http://www.indiana.edu/~mpsa/


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Bergman, Elizabeth. "How Does Vote By Mail Affect Voters? A natural experiment examining individual-level turnout" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association 67th Annual National Conference, The Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL, Apr 02, 2009 <Not Available>. 2009-11-10 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p363007_index.html>

APA Citation:

Bergman, E. , 2009-04-02 "How Does Vote By Mail Affect Voters? A natural experiment examining individual-level turnout" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association 67th Annual National Conference, The Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL Online <PDF>. 2009-11-10 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p363007_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Does vote by mail increase turnout? Scholars (Kousser and Mullin 2007) point out that sample selection problems in the early work on vote by mail make extension of results problematic. In this study we take advantage of a natural experiment following the same voters to ascertain the individual-level effects on turnout when voters are assigned to mandatory mail-ballot precincts. We hypothesize that mandatory vote by mail lowers the cost of voting and increases turnout. This project analyzed panel data of validated individual voter records across four elections in California from 2006 to 2008 while controlling for contextual factors. Using weighted least squares logit models for analysis of the validated records of all mail ballot precinct voters in five counties we can more accurately estimate the impact of vote by mail across voter stratifications and populations. Individual level work using panel data has not been done since Berinsky et al (2001) did using only Oregon data from 1994-1996; furthermore, in that study the sample n was only 811 voters; this proposal analyzed the behavior of more than 50,000 voters.

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Associated Document Available All Academic Inc.
Associated Document Available Political Research Online
Associated Document Available Midwest Political Science Association 67th Annual National Conference

Document Type: PDF
Page count: 22
Word count: 5109
Text sample:
How Does Vote By Mail Affect Voters? A natural experiment examining individual-level turnout Elizabeth Bergman Ph.D. California State University East Bay Phil Yates Ph.D. California State Polytechnic University Pomona Does vote by mail increase turnout? Scholars (Kousser and Mullin 2007) point out that sample selection problems in the early work on vote by mail make extension of results problematic. In this study we take advantage of a natural experiment following the same voters to ascertain the individual-level effects on
Goldstein. 2000. “Multilevel models for repeated binary outcomes: attitudes and voting over the electoral cycle.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 163:1:49-62. Statement of Vote Nov 2008: http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/sov/2008_general/sov_complete.pdf June 2008: http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/sov/2008_primary_june/sdp08SOV.pdf Nov 2006: http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/sov/2006_general/assembly.pdf June 2006: http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/sov/2006_primary/sov_detail_primary_assembly.pdf (retrieved December 17 2008) Follow the Money http://www.followthemoney.org/database/StateGlance/state_candidates.phtml? s=CA&y=2008&f=H&so=O&p=2#sorttable (retrieved December 17 2008) 22


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