Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Much has been written on the triangular China-Taiwan-U.S. relations. However, scholars have not applied the Diversionary Theory in the highly salient China-Taiwan case. Orthodox Diversionary Theory argues leaders may resort international conflict when domestic political and economic situations are troublesome. Creation of explicit military conflict in the Taiwan Strait by Taiwan's leadership is deemed less likely. However, will Taipei's domestic political and economic changes lead to a better or worse relationship with Beijing? And will Taiwan's political parties' positions on cross-strait relations ensure them a ticket to the Presidency? 2004 marks an important year for the Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan. The ROC directly elected its President in March 2004 - the third-ever in Taiwan's history. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the election by a 0.2 percent margin. The DPP and the Kuomintang (KMT) coalitions continue to divide on their positions toward the mainland China. In the meantime, Taiwan continues to experience an economic downturn. Mainland China attracts a large amount of investment from Taiwan. Taiwan's domestic unemployment rate remains high. This paper applies an altered diversionary theory to test if leaders in Taiwan use Taiwan independence as a diversion for their domestic problems during the years leading to Taiwan's 2004 presidential election. Simultaneously, it will also determine if Taiwan's position on the cross-strait relations influences competing parties' prospects for winning of the 2004 election. As a closely related actor, the U.S. has official ties and unofficial ties with China and Taiwan respectively. Taiwan's domestic political and economic changes and the subsequent influence on cross-strait relations will also influence U.S. relations with both China and Taiwan. This research will also provide foreign policy implications for the U.S. government in dealing with Beijing and Taipei.