Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Early warning is universally accepted to be one of the pillars of effective prevention of genocide. The obligation to prevent genocide, therefore, implies the need for an effective early warning capacity. Most analysts have judged current risk assessment and early warning practices to be adequate, if imperfect, pointing to other factors in explaining failures to prevent mass atrocities. After sketching a basic conceptual framework for early warning, this paper discusses significant limitations of a leading genocide risk assessment model. This analysis, and the identification of additional challenges, suggests that the field may be further than is commonly acknowledged from developing effective early warning methods and mechanisms for the prevention of genocide and mass atrocities.